Key Highlights

● Palladium futures fell 2.57% to $1,097.50, extending a slide since September.

● Prices are down 15.82% over a month and 30.00% over a year.

● Electric vehicle adoption continues to pressure catalytic converter demand.

● Resilient hybrid demand has moderated the decline.

Palladium futures traded below $1,120 an ounce on Wednesday, 14 October 2026, extending their decline since September to a more than one-year low amid persistent investment outflows and a bearish long-term outlook. According to market data, the contract was quoted at $1,097.50 (USD), down $29.00, or 2.57%, from a previous level near $1,126.50. Earlier in the session, spot palladium fell 0.7% to $1,118.46 per ounce.

Rate Hike Odds Add Pressure

Stronger-than-expected US inflation pushed the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October to nearly 50%, reversing earlier expectations that rates would remain unchanged until December. Higher-for-longer interest rates weigh on non-yielding assets such as palladium by increasing the opportunity cost of holding them.

EVs Weigh on Demand

Over the longer term, growing adoption of electric vehicles continues to pressure demand for palladium used in catalytic converters. Resilient demand for hybrids, which still use the metal, has helped moderate the decline. Palladium is also used in multilayer ceramic capacitors for electronics.

Supply Still Constrained

Demand is falling faster than supply is contracting, which underpins the bearish outlook. Production is constrained by elevated operating costs and power grid instability in South Africa, alongside ongoing trade risks in Russia, where much output comes as a byproduct of nickel mining. In the United States, Sibanye-Stillwater (NYSE:SBSW) operates platinum group metals mines in Montana, and domestic recyclers supply metal recovered from catalytic converters.

Contract and Price Context

Each palladium futures contract covers 100 troy ounces of 0.9995 fine palladium, a nominal value of about $109,750 at the latest quote. Palladium is down 15.82% over the past month and 30.00% over the past year, implying prices of roughly $1,303.70 a month ago and $1,567.90 twelve months earlier. That is a fall of about $206.20 per ounce in a month.

Forecast and Outlook

Market forecasts point to about $1,099.71 (USD) for the fourth quarter, which is $2.21, or roughly 0.20%, above the latest quote. That near-flat outlook suggests analysts expect prices to stabilize close to current levels.

Palladium's Floor Search

Palladium has lost nearly a third of its value over a year as electric vehicles reshape the catalyst market. Hybrid demand and supply constraints may slow the decline, but rate expectations and investment flows will set the next move.