Key Highlights

● COMEX gold for December delivery closed at $4,162.30 per ounce on October 2, 2026, down 0.95%, after a losing week.

● September payrolls rose only 29,000 against expectations near 90,000, cutting October Fed rate-increase odds to below 15%.

● The ten-year Treasury Yield reached about 5.3% this week, its highest in roughly two decades, pressuring non-yielding gold.

● Newmont reported first-quarter attributable output of 1.301 million ounces at a realized price of $4,900 per ounce.

COMEX gold futures for December delivery closed at $4,162.30 per troy ounce on Friday, October 2, 2026, down 0.95%, as elevated Treasury yields and a firm dollar outweighed a weak US jobs report and extended a losing week. Newmont (NYSE:NEM), a major gold producer, reported first-quarter 2026 attributable output of 1.301 million ounces at a by-product All-In Sustaining Cost of $1,029 per ounce.

Feeds Disagree by About $80 an Ounce

Quotes for gold differed across feeds. One showed $4,137.26 on October 5, down 0.07%. Physical gold was put at $4,192.30 on October 2, and another Friday close was cited at $4,216.80. The spread of roughly $80 is too wide to be rounding and probably reflects contract month, spot versus futures pricing and timing. The December futures close of $4,162.30 is the best-timed figure, and the market is best described as trading between about $4,150 and $4,220.

Earlier on Friday, spot gold was quoted at $4,188.28 and US gold futures at $4,218.60, with weekly losses above 2%. Gold was heading for a second straight weekly decline, with a strong dollar and high Treasury yields cited as the cause.

A Weak Jobs Print Meets Two-Decade Yield Highs

The September US jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls up 29,000 against expectations near 90,000, with Unemployment rising to 4.2%. Market-implied odds of an October Federal Reserve rate increase fell below 15%, and one gauge put the chance of an unchanged policy rate near 80%. Gold pays no interest, so lower expected rates reduce the cost of holding it.

The offset is the bond market. The ten-year Treasury yield reached about 5.3% this week, a level described as the highest in roughly two decades. Before the payrolls release, markets priced about an 80% chance of a December rate increase.

Geopolitics added noise. A US rejection of an Iranian peace proposal was linked to a sharp one-day drop in gold and to oil volatility, while Middle East tension has fed Inflation concerns. August PCE inflation cooled to 3.4% annually, though part of that reflected benchmark revisions. Safe-haven Demand has not been a reliable direction for gold in this episode.

Newmont and Barrick Show Costs Rising With Prices

Newmont reported first-quarter attributable production of 1.301 million ounces at an average realized price of $4,900 per ounce and a by-product all-in sustaining cost of $1,029 per ounce. It reiterated 2026 guidance of 5.3 million attributable ounces. The company is also listed in Australia but reports in US dollars.

Barrick Mining Corporation (NYSE:B) reported second-quarter gold output of 796,000 ounces, above its guidance range of 730,000 to 770,000 ounces. Its realized price was $4,417 per ounce, against $3,295 a year earlier, and its all-in sustaining cost rose 11% to $1,866 per ounce. It also agreed with Newmont to expand Nevada Gold Mines assets, with Newmont paying a $1.95 billion cash top-up, and Newmont consented to Barrick’s planned initial public offering of North American gold assets.

Both realized prices sit well above the $4,162.30 close, so third-quarter results may look different, and rising costs narrow the benefit of any given price. Hedged producers gain less from rallies, and firms that report in US dollars but pay costs in local currencies are exposed to exchange rates.

The Fed Minutes and Yield Path Decide the Next Move

Gold could gain from softer US labor data that keeps rate-increase expectations low, a weaker dollar, falling Treasury yields and renewed geopolitical stress. Market commentary suggests September losses are unlikely to be recovered quickly but that the worst of the correction may be over.

Risks to the downside include further dollar strength, higher yields, and inflation or jobs data strong enough to revive rate-increase pricing.

Federal Open Market Committee minutes are due on October 7, 2026, weekly jobless claims on October 8 and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey on October 9. The next US inflation report, further Fed commentary, Treasury yields and Middle East developments are also in focus. Third-quarter results from Newmont and Barrick are expected later in the year.