Key Highlights

  • MercadoLibre (NASDAQ:MELI) traded at USD 1,597.99, down 11.72% from a Friday, October 23, 2026 close of about USD 1,810, in early trading on Monday, October 26, 2026 after Lula's runoff win.
  • Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won Brazil's runoff on Sunday, October 25, 2026 with about 51.8%, and Brazil is MercadoLibre's largest market, so a weaker real cuts reported dollar results.
  • MercadoLibre (NASDAQ:MELI) passed USD 10 billion of quarterly revenue in the second quarter of 2026, and analysts expect third-quarter revenue of about USD 10.69 billion and earnings of USD 9.34 per share.
  • Third-quarter results are expected in early November 2026, although the company has not confirmed a date, and the move reflects country risk, not a company release.

The Move in Early Trading

MercadoLibre (NASDAQ:MELI), the Latin American e-commerce and fintech group, traded at USD 1,597.99 in early trading on Monday, October 26, 2026, down 11.72% from a Friday, October 23 close of about USD 1,810. Earlier premarket and morning prints showed falls of 10.9% to 15%, so the drop has varied through the session. The company has not issued a release explaining the move. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won the Brazilian runoff on Sunday, October 25 with about 51.8%, whereas a poll average had favoured Flavio Bolsonaro at 51.0%. Dollar futures on the real rose about 10% overnight, and Nu Holdings (NYSE:NU) fell 22.36%.

Why Brazil Weighs on MercadoLibre

MercadoLibre (NASDAQ:MELI) runs a marketplace, a logistics network and a credit and payments arm, and Brazil is its largest market. A weaker real lowers the dollar value of Brazilian sales and profit, while a Selic, the central bank policy rate, of 14.00% raises the cost of funding its consumer credit book. Public debt of 82% to 93% of gross domestic product, depending on the measure, adds fear of higher taxes and weaker consumer spending. Heavy spending on free shipping, logistics and credit cards has weighed on earnings even as revenue grew strongly. Analysts hold a Strong Buy consensus, with 9 Buy and 3 Hold ratings and an average target of USD 2,291.82, about 27% above the Friday close. The group also operates in other Latin American countries, which dilutes the Brazil effect.

Risks and What to Watch

The first risk for MercadoLibre (NASDAQ:MELI) is currency, since a weaker real reduces reported dollar revenue from its largest market. The second is credit quality, as slower growth and higher rates could raise defaults on the consumer loans it funds. The third is margin pressure from shipping and logistics investment. The fourth is political, because Flavio Bolsonaro has not conceded. Investors should watch the B3 reopening on Monday, October 26, 2026, the naming of an economic team, the Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday, October 28, 2026 and the third-quarter report in early November, for which analysts expect revenue of about USD 10.69 billion and earnings of USD 9.34 per share.

Where Things Stand

The answer is that MercadoLibre (NASDAQ:MELI) fell 11.72% because Brazil, its largest market, repriced after Lula's win, with no company announcement behind it. The group passed USD 10 billion of quarterly revenue in the second quarter, so the fall reflects currency, rates and credit fears more than slowing sales. The next catalysts are the B3 reopening on Monday, October 26, 2026, the Fed decision on Wednesday, October 28 and third-quarter results in early November. Early prices are snapshots, targets are not guarantees, and this is not investment advice.