Key Highlights

  • SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) is scheduled to report third-quarter results after the close on Tuesday, October 20, 2026, with revenue forecast at about USD 12.9 billion in one published preview.
  • Revenue was USD 7.8 billion in the previous quarter, so the forecast implies growth of about 65% in a single quarter, by simple arithmetic on the two published figures.
  • Options pricing pointed to a post-results move of about 7.8% in one provider's data, while about 1.3 billion shares are reported to become eligible for sale around the report.
  • Talk of a combination with Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), floated by Barclays and Wedbush analysts, is unconfirmed by either company. Results cannot be known in advance, so every figure here is a forecast.

The Schedule and the Forecasts

SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX), the rocket launch and Starlink satellite internet company, is scheduled to publish third-quarter results after the market close on Tuesday, October 20, 2026. A live audio webcast follows at 3:30 p.m. CT, which is 4:30 p.m. ET, according to a company announcement reported on Friday, October 16. Revenue is forecast at about USD 12.9 billion in one preview and near USD 13 billion in another, against USD 7.8 billion in the previous quarter. Options pricing implied a move of about 7.8% after the report, in one provider's data. About 1.3 billion shares are reported to become eligible for sale. The shares began trading on Nasdaq in June after an offering priced at USD 135 each.

How a Share Unlock Meets a Revenue Test

A lockup is a contractual period after a listing during which insiders and early holders cannot sell. When it ends, potential supply rises, and the price can weaken even if the business is unchanged, because holders who bought far below the offer price may take profits. For SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX), the reported 1.3 billion shares arrive alongside a forecast that implies growth of about 65% from the previous quarter. A result above the forecast could help the market absorb new supply, while a shortfall would meet that supply with fewer buyers. The reported purchase of 800 MHz spectrum for about USD 8 billion adds a further question: how quickly direct-to-device Starlink service, which connects ordinary phones to satellites, turns into revenue.

Risks and What to Watch

The first risk is the forecast itself: previews draw on a small number of analysts, and the two published figures already differ. The second is supply, because the size and timing of insider selling after the unlock are not known. The third is narrative. Merger talk involving Tesla lifted Tesla shares on Monday, October 19, yet it remains speculation and nothing has been confirmed. A broader risk is the AI-debt scare that cut the Nasdaq by 2.1% on Friday, October 16, which weighs on high-valuation shares. Investors should watch the revenue split between launch and Starlink, spending plans for the new spectrum and trading on Wednesday, October 21, followed by the Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday, October 28, 2026.

Where Things Stand

The answer is that SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) needs revenue close to USD 12.9 billion and a credible spending plan to offset fresh share supply. That bar is demanding, since it implies about 65% growth from USD 7.8 billion in one quarter. An implied move of about 7.8% shows how much repricing traders expect. The next catalysts are the release and webcast on Tuesday, October 20, the first full session after it on October 21 and the Fed decision on October 28. Forecasts and implied moves are not guarantees, and this is not investment advice.