Key Highlights

● Nasdaq-100 futures were down 2.62% around 8 a.m. ET while Dow futures edged higher.

● Intel traded near $69 pre-market against Thursday's $92.07 close after weak guidance.

● The Employment Cost index at 8:30 a.m. is expected to rise 0.8%.

● OPEC+ meets Sunday to decide December output ahead of Tuesday's midterm elections.

Wall Street heads into the last trading day of October with a lopsided setup. Around 8 a.m. ET, market quotes showed S&P 500 futures down 1.13% at 7,666.25, Nasdaq-100 futures down 2.62% at 28,788.75, Russell 2000 futures down 0.58%, and Dow futures up 9 points at 52,521. Here's what matters most for the first hour.

1. Intel's open. Shares of Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) were down about 25% pre-market, near $69 against Thursday's $92.07 close, after fourth-quarter Revenue guidance of $15 billion to $16 billion came in well below the roughly $17.1 billion consensus. One report said about $123 billion of Market Value is at risk. Watch whether chip peers AMD (NASDAQ:AMD), Arm (NASDAQ:ARM), Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) and Micron (NASDAQ:MU), down 2% to 9% pre-market, stabilize or fall further.

2. Amazon's cash burn. The stock of Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) was down about 7% after trailing 12-month free Cash Flow turned to an outflow of $42.4 billion. The open will show whether dip-buyers step in, following one brokerage's description of the selloff as a "Spend-Scare Overreaction," per a market headline.

3. Earnings gaps. Reddit (NYSE:RDDT) was down about 22%, Twilio (NYSE:TWLO) about 20% and Roblox (NYSE:RBLX) about 17% at 8:23 a.m. ET, per market data. Mondelez (NASDAQ:MDLZ), Regeneron (NASDAQ:REGN) and Colgate (NYSE:CL) were up 5% to 7%.

Data and the Fed

4. Employment Cost Index, 8:30 a.m. Third-quarter wage costs were expected to rise 0.8%, after 0.9% in the second quarter. With the Fed in a tightening cycle and about 85% odds priced for a December hike, a hot reading could lift yields.

5. Chicago PMI, 9:45 a.m. Consensus is 54.6, down from 58.8.

6. Fed speakers. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly gives opening remarks at noon ET. ECB chief economist Philip Lane gives a keynote on AI and the economy at 12:10 p.m. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem speaks at 12:30 p.m., with text and Q&A expected.

7. Yields. The 10-year was near 4.94% to 4.99%, down about 30 to 40 basis points this month after topping 5.30%.

Cross-asset signals

8. Oil. WTI was up 2.18% at $104.20 and Brent up 2.50% at $117.80, per market data, after Iran said four tankers struck mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Energy stocks Exxon (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) were higher after earnings beats. Airlines and transports may feel the fuel cost pressure.

9. Crypto. Bitcoin was near $77,350 after the $6.3 billion Binance hack, and Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN), Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) and Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD) were down about 5% to 6% pre-market.

10. Volatility. The VIX was at 18.60 pre-open, up 8.1%, according to market data. November VIX futures were near 19.21, pointing to hedging ahead of the midterms and jobs report.

11. Month-end. October closes today. Through Thursday, the S&P 500 was up 0.90% for the month and the Nasdaq Composite down 2.52%, based on closing levels. Futures imply the S&P could finish October roughly flat to slightly lower. That's an inference, not reported data. Month-end Rebalancing can produce unusual moves near the close.

The weekend and next week

OPEC+'s seven-country subgroup meets online Sunday to decide December output. Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) reports Monday after the close, the midterm elections are Tuesday, and the October jobs report is due Friday, Nov. 6. A weak finish today would send a cautious tone into one of the busiest weeks of the quarter.

The counterweight to all of this is earnings. Market data cited in media reports show third-quarter S&P 500 profits on pace to rise 31%. That's the main reason dip-buyers may test today's opening losses. How they fare in Intel and Amazon will set the tone for the session.