Key Highlights

  • The stock added roughly 1.9% during the October 23, 2026 session after a two-step rating change to Buy carried the objective upward from USD 75 to USD 250.
  • The USD 250 objective suggests more than 65% potential from the call price and compares with a consensus mean around USD 244.
  • Quarterly earnings were USD 0.45 a share on USD 14.58 billion of revenue, both above estimates.
  • Fourth-quarter capital expenditure is guided to USD 35 billion to USD 40 billion versus USD 19.6 billion in the third quarter.

What Put SpaceX Up 1.9% as a Former Bear Set a USD 250 Target?

SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) advanced roughly 1.9% during Friday's October 23, 2026 session when a previously cautious brokerage shifted straight to Buy. The firm moved its objective upward from USD 75 to USD 250, implying over 65% potential from the prevailing price. That figure sits close to the roughly USD 244 consensus mean.

The stock had been about 12% below its recent peak before the change. The old objective was USD 75, before the reset. Supporting evidence included third-quarter revenue of USD 14.58 billion and EPS of USD 0.45, both ahead of expectations. Since mid-August, the AI coding business Cursor contributed another USD 608 million of business.

Why Is Compute Pricing More Important Than Launch Volume to the Upgrade?

The upgraded view rests on stronger economics for computing capacity. Newly signed cloud agreements carry higher rental prices, and expiring capacity is being renewed at more revenue per watt. When installed GPUs remain scarce, rate increases can expand margins without requiring the same rise in physical volume.

The brokerage said new capacity can repay its cost in less than one year. A sub-12-month payback would allow fresh projects to fund subsequent expansion more quickly. It also said richer-margin cloud sales had moved the AI operation into profit.

Connectivity provides another growth leg. Enterprise and government revenue increased 91% year over year, with Starshield contracts and aviation installations supplying support. Even so, compute pricing rather than rocket activity was the key reason for the higher valuation.

Could Capacity Growth and a Possible Tesla Deal Undercut the Thesis?

The spending requirement is the principal counterweight. Third-quarter outlays totalled USD 19.6 billion; the guided fourth-quarter range would multiply that figure by about 1.8 to 2.0, reaching between USD 35 billion and USD 40 billion. Power or cooling constraints could delay deployment and lengthen repayment periods.

More competing capacity could also weaken rental scarcity, reducing prices just as investment peaks. Funding close to USD 40 billion in one quarter makes delivery slippage more consequential. A proposed combination with Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) adds uncertainty because independent committees continue their work before any terms have been agreed.

Targets are opinions, not promises. The former bear's changed view depends on pricing staying firm enough to outweigh those capital demands. The move also demonstrates how a margin thesis can supersede a volume thesis: higher revenue from each watt can improve returns even before additional machines begin operating. That benefit disappears if competitors remove scarcity faster than contracts can renew.

What to Watch Next: Will October 28 to November 3 Catalysts Confirm the Rerating?

The Federal Reserve decides policy Wednesday, October 28, 2026. Large cloud-company results span October 28 and Thursday, October 29, followed by the midterm vote Tuesday, November 3. Any merger terms would form another catalyst.

Investors can compare renewal rates and project timing with spending guidance whose endpoints are USD 35 billion and USD 40 billion. A fading shortage would challenge the less-than-one-year payback assumption. The results sequence continues through October 29 and the midterms on November 3, all in 2026, while the earlier objective was USD 75. Future returns remain uncertain, and this analysis is not investment advice.