Key Highlights

● The Employment Cost index lands at 8:30 a.m. ET before Chevron and AbbVie report earnings.

● The Fed held rates steady Wednesday with two officials dissenting in favor of a hike.

● WTI settled at $102.00 and Brent at $114.88 as Middle East tensions kept a premium.

● Amazon and Intel fell sharply after hours, pushing Nasdaq-100 futures lower.

Wall Street ends October with a wage report the Fed will scrutinize and results from an oil major and a drug giant, all arriving after a bruising week for big tech.

The last trading day of the month

Friday, October 30, is the final session of October, and it comes with plenty to digest. Before the opening bell, investors will get the Employment Cost Index for the third quarter at 8:30 a.m. ET, plus Earnings from Chevron (NYSE:CVX) and AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV), according to market calendars. Dominion Energy (NYSE:D) also reports before the open.

The setup is tense. On Thursday, the S&P 500 slipped 23.59 points to 7,720.39 and the Nasdaq Composite tumbled 365.13 points to 26,184.72 after Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL)'s worst session since its 2004 IPO. After the close, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) fell sharply in extended trading, and Nasdaq-100 futures slid, according to market data.

Why the ECI matters now

The Employment Cost Index tracks what employers pay for wages and benefits. Economists value it because it adjusts for shifts in the mix of jobs, giving a cleaner read on labor costs than average hourly earnings.

For the Federal Reserve, it is a key input. The Fed held rates steady on Wednesday after hiking in September, with two officials, Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, dissenting in favor of another hike. Chair Warsh described labor market conditions as "quite positive" while noting Americans are "still dealing with Inflation that has been running above the committee's objective."

Thursday's data raised the stakes. Third-quarter GDP accelerated and beat forecasts, and September PCE inflation ran hot. One Wealth advisor said, "Today's data strengthens the case for another rate increase in December." Futures pricing showed traders assigning high odds to a December hike, though one media report said expectations leaned toward a pause, so readings differed. A hot ECI would likely strengthen the hawkish case.

Chevron: oil profits in a war-premium market

Chevron reports with oil prices elevated. West Texas Intermediate settled at $102.00 a barrel on Thursday and Brent at $114.88, according to media reports, as tensions in the Middle East kept a premium in prices. WTI has held above $100 since the week of October 23.

Yet the backdrop is volatile. Chevron and Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) cancelled executive travel to an oil show in the United Arab Emirates, according to media reports, and oil traders are pricing the risk of a U.S. strike on Iran after the November 3 midterm elections. Investors will listen for how Chevron is handling the disruption and what it plans to do with its cash.

AbbVie: the next pharma test

AbbVie steps up after a strong run for drugmakers. Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) and Merck (NYSE:MRK) both beat and raised guidance on Thursday, pushing health care to the top of the sector table. Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD) followed after the bell with a third raise of its base-business guidance this year.

AbbVie, maker of immunology treatments Skyrizi and Rinvoq, will be judged on whether it can extend that streak.

How October is shaping up

Midday figures from a market snapshot showed the Dow and Russell 2000 up for October, while the Nasdaq-100 was down for the month. Friday's session will determine where the indexes finish. The Dow stood at 52,342.56 at Thursday's close and the Russell 2000 at 2,859.22.

What to watch

Beyond the scheduled events, Friday's open will reflect after-hours moves from Thursday night. Amazon slid on a fourth-quarter outlook with a midpoint below consensus, while Intel plunged on weak guidance. Reddit (NYSE:RDDT), Roblox (NYSE:RBLX) and Twilio (NYSE:TWLO) also fell sharply after hours. Treasury yields, which eased Thursday, will react first to the ECI, and Fed rate-hike odds for the December 8 to 9 meeting could shift with them.