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US Allows Iran to Sell Oil in Dollars for First Time in Decades After Peace Talks Progress

The authorisation follows senior US official confirmation that Iran has committed to the fourteen-point conditions outlined in the June 17 memorandum signed at Versailles, including allowing nuclear inspectors to re-enter and maintaining Strait of Hormuz access. The move represents a structural change in the …

Nitish Kishor | 22 June 2026

Fed Hawkishness Under Warsh: What Three Rate Hikes in 2026 Would Mean for Equity Valuations

A 75-basis-point cumulative tightening cycle in the second half of the year would mechanically compress the present value of terminal earnings for long-duration growth equities and apply upward pressure on investment-grade corporate credit spreads, which have narrowed to historically tight levels. The transmission effect …

Nitish Kishor | 22 June 2026

Greenspan Playbook Set for Replay Under Warsh as Fed Philosophy Shifts to Inflation Discipline

Warsh's emphasis on price stability over growth management is a structural break from the put-option approach to monetary policy that defined much of the 1990s and 2000s. Scenarios of up to 75 basis points of tightening in the second half of 2026 have not …

Nitish Kishor | 22 June 2026

Alan Greenspan, Former Federal Reserve Chairman Who Shaped US Monetary Policy, Dies at 100

Greenspan's tenure spanned the Black Monday crash, the dot-com bubble, and the post-September 11 economic shock, with each episode met by monetary accommodation that reinforced markets' expectation of a central bank backstop. Critics later argued this posture allowed systemic leverage and asset price inflation …

Nitish Kishor | 22 June 2026

Iran and US Reach Accord on Path to Comprehensive Agreement, Pledge to Halt Lebanon Hostilities

The US and Iran have made a significant breakthrough in their negotiations, agreeing on a roadmap. This development is a result of diplomatic efforts to resolve the ongoing tensions between the two countries. The agreement is a crucial step towards a peaceful resolution.

Nitish Kishor | 22 June 2026

Keir Starmer Resigns as UK Prime Minister, Triggering Leadership Contest Amid Political Turmoil

Keir Starmer’s resignation as UK prime minister marks a sudden shift in British politics, leaving the party scrambling to stabilise its leadership. The move follows a period of heightened scrutiny over domestic policy and economic management, with investors closely watching the transition. Analysts suggest …

Nitish Kishor | 22 June 2026

US Allows Iran to Sell Oil in Dollars for First Time in Decades After Peace Talks ProgressThe US Treasury Department has authorised Iranian crude oil sales in US dollars through August, marking the first time in decades that Iran has been permitted to transact in the dollar-denominated global oil market. Key Highlights • The Treasury authorised dollar-denominated Iranian oil sales through August following Iran's agreement on nuclear inspections. • Brent crude fell over 3% to approximately $77.40, with WTI settling near $73.73 on the supply implications. • The move marks a significant shift in the sanctions architecture, introducing new complexity for global oil pricing. The authorisation follows senior US official confirmation that Iran has committed to the fourteen-point conditions outlined in the June 17 memorandum signed at Versailles, including allowing nuclear inspectors to re-enter and maintaining Strait of Hormuz access. The move represents a structural change in the sanctions architecture that had effectively locked Iranian crude out of dollar-denominated settlement since the conflict began in February. The speed at which Iranian barrels re-enter the market will depend on logistics, storage availability, and buyer appetite at current price levels. The single-session crude decline reflects the extent to which war risk premium had been sustaining prices above underlying supply-demand fundamentals. Dollar strength and Treasury yields may face additional pressure if the diplomatic track continues to progress, as dollar-denominated oil settlement increases global demand for US currency while simultaneously reducing energy market disruption risk for the broader economy.

The authorisation follows senior US official confirmation that Iran has committed to the fourteen-point conditions outlined in the June 17 memorandum signed at Versailles, including allowing nuclear inspectors to re-enter and maintaining Strait of Hormuz access. The move represents a structural change in the …

Nitish Kishor | 22 June 2026

BofA and Deutsche Bank Now Expect Fed to Raise Rates in September Under Warsh

The revised forecasts mark a meaningful departure from prior consensus calls for rates to hold steady through year-end and have contributed to a selloff in longer-duration Treasuries even as oil prices declined on US-Iran progress. The dynamic illustrates the competing forces acting on US …

Nitish Kishor | 22 June 2026

Caterpillar's Thousand-Dollar Threshold: What Industrial Re-Rating Means for the AI Infrastructure Supercycle

The thesis is that demand for power generation equipment, heavy construction machinery, and engineered products tied to data centre and grid buildout is not a one-cycle event but a multi-year capital expenditure programme sustaining industrial earnings above prior cycle levels. The market's willingness to …

Nitish Kishor | 22 June 2026

Chubb (NYSE: CB) CEO Flags Gradual Hormuz Shipping Recovery Amid Persistent Security Threats

Shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz continues to be affected by security concerns in the region. Insurers and shipping companies are adapting their operational approaches as the waterway remains a focal point for geopolitical tension, which in turn influences global trade patterns.

Nitish Kishor | 22 June 2026
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