Key Highlights

● COF closed at $199.14 on 9 October 2026, and the second data set's $254.77 mean target implies upside of about 28 per cent.

● Market data shows a similar $256.09 average from 25 ratings, with targets from $219 to $300.

● Market data records 20 Buy and five Hold ratings with no Sell, a Moderate Buy consensus.

● Citigroup cut to $280 from $295 on 29 September, TD Cowen to $242 from $253 on 6 October and Barclays to $237 from $240 on 5 October.

Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE:COF), a member of the S&P 500, is a US bank holding company best known for credit cards. Its shares closed at $199.14 on Friday 9 October 2026, and analyst price targets sit well above that level.

What Is the Latest Analyst Price Target?

The second data set, based on third-party data from 24 analysts and updated on 8 October 2026, shows a mean target of $254.77, a median of $254, a high of $290 and a low of $219. Against the $199.14 close, the consensus target suggests upside of about 28 per cent.

Market data shows a very similar average of $256.09 from 25 ratings in the past 12 months, with a range of $219 to $300, implying about 29 per cent. The recent named targets average roughly $247.

What Are Wall Street Analysts Saying?

Ratings are strongly positive. Market data records 20 Buy and five Hold ratings with no Sells and calls the consensus Moderate Buy; the second data set describes it as Buy.

The direction of recent target changes is downward, however. Citigroup lowered a Buy-rated target from $295 to $280 on 29 September 2026. TD Cowen cut a Buy-rated target from $253 to $242 on 6 October, and Barclays trimmed an Overweight target from $240 to $237 on 5 October. Evercore set $220 on 1 October, and BMO Capital Markets initiated coverage on 9 October with a Market Perform rating and a $219 target. Piper Sandler raised an Overweight target from $254 to $260 on 28 September.

What Could Help the Stock Reach the Price Target?

Even the lowest published target of $219 sits above the share price. If the recent cuts prove to be modest adjustments and not the start of a longer trend, the shares would have room to recover. The highest targets, such as Citigroup's $280, rest on expectations of continued earnings growth and manageable credit performance.

What Could Prevent the Stock Reaching the Target?

The downward drift in targets from Citigroup, TD Cowen and Barclays suggests analysts are becoming more cautious, and the shares may not close the gap if that continues. Consumer lenders are exposed to rising credit losses, a weaker labour market, regulatory changes affecting fees and interest rates, and competition in cards. The initiation by BMO Capital Markets at Market Perform, with the lowest target on the list, shows that not every broker sees large upside.

What Should Investors Watch Next?

Items to watch include the next quarterly results, any commentary on credit quality and losses, and whether more brokers lower their targets.

Capital One's Large Upside Case Meets a Downward Drift in Targets

Capital One closed at $199.14 on 9 October 2026, and even the lowest published target of $219 sits above it, with the $254.77 mean about 28 per cent higher and recent named targets averaging roughly $247. The drift has been downward from Citigroup, TD Cowen and Barclays, and BMO's Market Perform initiation carries the lowest target on the list. Rising credit losses, a weaker labour market and card-fee regulation are the general risks for a consumer lender.