Key Highlights

  • Upstart (NASDAQ:UPST) traded at USD 19.07 on November 13, 2026, down 0.42%, close to its 52-week low of USD 18.06 and far below the high of USD 52.10, with a Market Value of about USD 1.88 billion.
  • Third-quarter 2026 Loan originations rose 44% to USD 4.12 billion across 574,089 loans, and total Revenue rose 34% to USD 370.5 million.
  • Net income was USD 36.6 million, or USD 0.33 per diluted share, against USD 31.8 million, or USD 0.23, and contribution profit reached a record USD 218 million.
  • Full-year 2026 guidance now calls for total revenue of about USD 1.35 billion and adjusted EBITDA of about USD 260 million, as management cited the economy, funding costs and delinquencies.

Strong Quarter, Softer Outlook

Upstart (NASDAQ:UPST) uses AI models to underwrite personal, auto and home Equity loans for banks, Credit unions and institutional funders. The third quarter, reported on November 3, showed Volume growing quickly: fee revenue rose 41% to USD 364.0 million, contribution profit grew 48% with a 60% margin, and Operating Income rose to USD 36.0 million from USD 23.7 million. Adjusted EBITDA was USD 89.3 million, a 24% margin, slightly lower than 26% a year earlier. The market focused instead on the outlook. Full-year revenue of about USD 1.35 billion sits below an earlier midpoint near USD 1.4 billion, and the shares, which had already fallen sharply this year, did not rally on the beat. The screen shows a 138.00% change in Earnings Per Share and a trailing price to earnings ratio of 33.43, which reflects the return to profit after losses in earlier years. Loans are also spread across more products than a year ago, with auto and home equity lending growing alongside the core personal loan business.

Balance Sheet and Funding

The Business depends on outside Capital to buy the loans it originates, so funding conditions matter as much as borrower demand. Cash and equivalents fell to USD 461.5 million at September 30 from USD 652.4 million at the end of 2025, while borrowings rose to USD 2,027.3 million from USD 1,829.1 million as the company held more loans on its own Balance Sheet and used Debt to fund them. Restricted cash was USD 667.0 million, and shareholders' equity was USD 887.4 million. The company spent USD 100.1 million on Buybacks over nine months. Holding more loans increases exposure to credit losses if delinquencies rise, and rising Treasury yields this autumn have lifted funding costs for the investors who buy Upstart loans. One improvement was secured lending, where contribution Margin turned positive at 17% from a deeply negative figure a year earlier. The mix of funding from banks, credit unions and capital market investors gives some protection, but each group can step back quickly when credit markets tighten.

What Comes Next

Management is preparing to launch Upstart Bank in early 2027, which could give the company a cheaper and steadier deposit funding base over time, though it will bring bank regulation and capital requirements. From the first quarter of 2027 the company will stop reporting its conversion rate metric, a change some investors will watch closely. For Upstart (NASDAQ:UPST), the key variables are consumer credit performance as the economy slows, the cost and availability of funding from loan buyers, and whether origination growth can continue without loosening credit standards. With the stock near its low and the company profitable, a stable credit backdrop could support a re-rating, while rising delinquencies would likely push funding partners to Demand higher returns. Quarterly origination growth will therefore be the most closely watched figure in the fourth-quarter report.

Where Things Stand

Upstart (NASDAQ:UPST) grew originations 44% and earned USD 36.6 million in the third quarter, but trimmed revenue guidance and higher borrowings have kept the stock near a 52-week low. Credit trends, funding costs and the early 2027 bank launch are the main markers ahead.