Key Highlights

  • 2026 Revenue guidance raised to $28.50-$30.30 billion and adjusted EBITDA to $4.88-$5.48 billion after the Chart deal closed on July 16.
  • Chart is expected to add $300-$400 million of 2026 adjusted EBITDA, with 55%-65% of its segment profit in the fourth quarter; shares fell about 5% on Sep 9.
  • Q2 IET orders doubled to a record $7.1 billion and total RPO reached $40.1 billion, underpinning the LNG and power growth story.
  • UBS trimmed its price target to $70 while keeping a Neutral rating, and the stock traded around $57.27 on Sep 20.

Baker Hughes (NASDAQ:BKR) lifted its full-year 2026 outlook on Sep 9, but the new numbers mostly reflect the arrival of Chart Industries (NYSE:GTLS) rather than a stronger view of the legacy business. The company now expects 2026 revenue of $28.50 billion to $30.30 billion, up from $26.65 billion to $28.05 billion, and adjusted EBITDA of $4.88 billion to $5.48 billion, up from $4.6 billion to $5.1 billion.

What the raise means for shareholders is a question of mix and timing. The energy technology group completed its $13.6 billion all-cash purchase of Chart on July 16, 2026, and said Chart is expected to add $1.85 billion to $2.25 billion of revenue and $300 million to $400 million of adjusted EBITDA this year. Reports said the EBITDA contribution sat below the roughly $400 million analysts had modelled, and the shares fell sharply after the announcement, down about 5.3% in later trading on Sep 9.

The market reaction suggests investors were looking for more than an acquisition-driven increase. Baker Hughes said 55% to 65% of Chart's segment profit is expected to land in the fourth quarter, while near-term margins face pressure from the timing of LNG equipment volumes and soft hydrogen demand. At the same time, the company signalled a recovery in LNG activity ahead, which fits with the record order book it built in the second quarter.

Inside the Revised 2026 Outlook

The arithmetic of the update is straightforward. The raised revenue range sits almost exactly where the old range would be after adding Chart's expected contribution, which suggests management has not materially changed its view of the pre-deal business. The EBITDA range was lifted by a smaller margin. For comparison, analysts had expected full-year revenue of about $28.31 billion and core profit of about $5.09 billion before the update.

Because so much of Chart's profit is weighted to the fourth quarter, the full-year guide depends heavily on late-year execution. That timing makes the next two quarterly reports important tests of whether the combined Business can deliver on the upper half of the range. UBS (NYSE:UBS) analyst Josh Silverstein trimmed his price target to $70 from $71 and kept a Neutral rating, citing integration costs and near-term Margin pressure while describing the longer-term accretion story as encouraging.

Record Orders Set the Backdrop

The second-quarter report, released on July 26, gave the company a strong base heading into the Chart integration. Orders reached $10.5 billion, up 49% from a year earlier, and remaining performance obligations (RPO) rose to $40.1 billion. Revenue was $6.74 billion, down 2% year over year mainly because of the divestitures of the Precision Sensors & Instrumentation and Surface Pressure Control businesses. Adjusted EBITDA was $1.23 billion, up 2%, and adjusted diluted EPS came in at $0.64 versus $0.63 a year earlier. GAAP Net Income attributable to the company was $681 million, or $0.68 per share.

Cash generation improved sharply. Operating Cash Flow was $1.35 billion and free cash flow was $1.11 billion, compared with $239 million in the prior-year quarter. The company paid a quarterly Dividend of $0.23 per share. Chief executive Lorenzo Simonelli said adjusted EBITDA exceeded the high end of guidance and expressed confidence in reaching the midpoint of full-year guidance while managing Middle East uncertainty.

Why LNG and Power Carry the Story

The Industrial & Energy Technology (IET) segment is the main engine of the Investment case. IET orders doubled year over year to a record $7.1 billion in the second quarter, with a book-to-bill ratio of 2.2, and IET RPO reached a record $37.1 billion. Segment EBITDA rose 16% to $678 million, lifting the margin to 20.6% from 17.8%. The company raised its full-year IET order guidance and lifted its 2026 to 2028 IET orders outlook to more than $45 billion.

Recent awards show the breadth of that demand. Baker Hughes announced a major order to Supply six LNG blocks for Venture Global's (NYSE:VG) CP2 expansion, liquefaction equipment for Cheniere's (NYSE:LNG) Sabine Pass Train 7, and gas turbine orders from Dynamis Power Solutions and Kodiak Gas Services (NYSE:KGS) tied partly to Data Center power demand. On Sep 13, it announced a further step with Venture Global on U.S. gas infrastructure. Chart adds heat exchangers, cryogenic equipment, compression and aftermarket services, along with about $4.3 billion of 2025 revenue and a targeted $325 million in annual cost synergies within three years.

By contrast, Oilfield Services & Equipment (OFSE) is more exposed to the Upstream cycle. OFSE revenue fell 5% year over year to $3.45 billion and segment EBITDA fell 11% to $605 million, reflecting the Surface Pressure Control sale and disruption in the Middle East. The company has said it expects global upstream spending to decline modestly this year.

Competitive Position in Energy Equipment

Baker Hughes competes with SLB (NYSE:SLB) and Halliburton (NYSE:HAL) in oilfield services, and with Siemens Energy, GE Vernova (NYSE:GEV) and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries in turbines and gas technology. Its strategy, reinforced by the Chart deal and the planned roughly $1.45 billion sale of Waygate Technologies to Hexagon, is to tilt the portfolio toward long-cycle LNG, gas infrastructure and power equipment, which generally offer more visible backlogs than short-cycle drilling work.

Risks Investors Are Weighing

  • Integration and leverage: Long-term Debt rose to about $15.5 billion at June 30 from $5.4 billion at the end of 2025 as the company funded the Chart deal. Delivering synergies while reducing debt will be closely watched.
  • Back-end loaded earnings: With most of Chart's 2026 profit expected in the fourth quarter, any delay could pressure the full-year range.
  • Deal conditions: European regulators required Chart to divest certain process technology businesses and to ensure LNG equipment interoperability with third-party systems.
  • Geopolitics and oil prices: The company flagged Middle East disruption and inflation, and OFSE remains sensitive to upstream spending decisions.
  • LNG timing: Project sanctioning and equipment delivery schedules can shift, affecting quarterly revenue and margins.

The First Full Quarter of Chart Results

The next major checkpoint is the third-quarter 2026 report, which Baker Hughes has typically issued in late October. Investors will look for the first full quarter of Chart results, progress on the $325 million synergy target, IET order momentum and any update to the IET orders outlook.

Other items to track include the closing of the Waygate sale, debt reduction plans and further LNG final investment decisions in the United States. The shares traded around $57.27 on Sep 20, and whether the fourth-quarter-weighted Chart contribution materializes will likely shape how the market judges the raised guidance.