Crude futures fell for a second consecutive session Tuesday as markets priced in the potential restoration of Gulf supply under the preliminary US-Iran agreement, with Brent settling near $82.72 per barrel, its lowest level since early March, while implementation doubts limited the pace of the decline.

  • Brent crude fell to approximately $82.72 per barrel Tuesday, extending a Monday decline of roughly 4.8% that erased most of the conflict-era risk premium.
  • WTI traded near $79 per barrel, approaching a three-month low, as market participants priced the prospect of resumed Hormuz tanker traffic by Friday.
  • Murban crude touched its lowest level since March 4, with market estimates attributing the selloff to vanishing geopolitical risk premiums rather than changes in physical supply.
  • Approximately 600 commercial vessels remained stranded awaiting Hormuz passage as of last week, highlighting the gap between financial market pricing and physical supply conditions.

Brent futures lost roughly 4.8% in a single session as the US and Iran announced a preliminary memorandum of understanding to end their conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The selloff built on a volatile prior week in which benchmarks had already declined on building peace talk momentum.

The physical crude market has yet to reflect any tangible improvement in actual flows. The strait had been effectively closed since late February, restricting approximately 14 million barrels per day of regional production. Even with a formal agreement expected Friday in Geneva, restoring tanker routing, insurance coverage, and vessel scheduling takes time that financial markets are currently discounting.

Iran's president described the accord as an important step but cautioned that a final agreement for a lasting truce has yet to take shape. OPEC member states are monitoring implementation progress closely before adjusting output targets. The American Petroleum Institute's weekly crude inventory report, due Tuesday evening, is the next near-term data point markets are watching for direction on domestic supply conditions.