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August's durable goods orders came in unchanged on a headline basis, but orders excluding the often-volatile transportation category rose 0.3%, a split that points to underlying resilience in core businessInvestmenteven as the top-line number shows no growth. Transportation orders, which include large, lumpy categories …
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman's 8:15 a.m. ET appearance and Fed Governor Lisa Cook's 1:25 p.m. ET remarks give markets a full day of exposure to voices from the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors at a moment when the policy outlook has become unusually contested. …
Futures-implied odds from CME FedWatch show traders assigning roughly a 66% probability to another rate increase at the Fed's October meeting, a level that reflects genuine conviction without being a foregone conclusion. That pricing follows directly from the September 16 decision, when the Federal …
The federal government funding deadline lands on September 30, putting this week squarely at the center of the shutdown risk window. As of the most recent reporting, a deal has been reached in the Senate, which is a meaningfully positive development compared with earlier …
A one year ahead inflation expectation of 4.6% is more than double the Federal Reserve's long standing 2% target, and the level matters because expectations themselves influence actual inflation outcomes. When households and businesses believe prices will keep rising sharply, they tend to negotiate …
Tuesday's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, known as JOLTS, kicks off a week loaded with labor market and inflation data ahead of the Fed's October decision. Released the same day as consumer confidence data, JOLTS offers one of the earliest reads on whether …
With yields across the Treasury curve near 19-year highs, including the 10-year note at 5.22%, bond buyers today can lock in income levels not available for nearly two decades. Historically, the starting yield on a bond purchase has been one of the strongest predictors …
A reading of 48.1 places the University of Michigan sentiment index deep in territory historically associated with recessions or acute economic stress, comparable to some of the lowest levels recorded over the survey's multi decade history. The decline to a four month low was …
The 10-year Treasury yield's move to 5.22% returns the benchmark to territory last visited in 2007, before the global financial crisis reset theInterest Rateregime for more than a decade. For institutional fixed income desks, that comparison matters less as a crisis warning and more …
The 30-year Treasury yield's move above 5.5% marks its highest level since 2004, a milestone for the longest-dated and most duration-sensitive segment of the government bond market. Because the 30-year bond's price is more sensitive to yield changes than any shorter maturity, this move …
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