Key Highlights

  • Vistra (NYSE:VST) will report third quarter 2026 results on Friday, November 6, 2026, with a call and webcast at 10:00 a.m. ET, where management may update 2026 and 2027 guidance.
  • Second quarter Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA was USD 1,767 million, up from USD 1,349 million, and 2026 guidance of USD 6.8 billion to USD 7.6 billion was reaffirmed.
  • Published analyst estimates ahead of the third quarter call for adjusted EBITDA of about USD 2.1 billion, up roughly 34 percent, and Revenue of about USD 7.3 billion, up about 46 percent.
  • About 100 percent of expected 2026 generation volumes were hedged as of August 3, 2026, along with 94 percent for 2027 and 72 percent for 2028.

What Was Reported and Guided

In the second quarter, Vistra (NYSE:VST) reported Net Income of USD 305 million, down from USD 327 million because of unrealized derivative losses, and Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA of USD 1,767 million. It reaffirmed 2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG of USD 3.925 billion to USD 4.725 billion. Both ranges exclude the pending Cogentrix acquisition, which FERC has approved but which has not closed, and the Meta power purchase agreements. The company also reiterated a 2027 adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity of USD 7.4 billion to USD 7.8 billion, which it said is not guidance and rests on market curves from October 31, 2025. Six-month net income was USD 1,334 million, and six-month adjusted EBITDA was USD 3,261 million.

Hedges, Buybacks and AI Power

Hedging locks in power prices ahead of delivery, so near-complete hedges reduce 2026 Earnings swings but cap upside if spot prices rise. Vistra has repurchased about USD 6.5 billion of stock since November 2021, cutting shares outstanding by roughly 30 percent to about 336 million, with about USD 1.2 billion of authorization left. It announced Helix Digital Infrastructure with KKR, KIA and NVIDIA, with an initial commitment of up to USD 1.0 billion, and holds a conditional Energy Department Loan Commitment of up to USD 4.2 billion for nuclear plants, per published reports. Liquidity was about USD 6.3 billion at June 30, 2026, giving room to fund growth and buybacks.

Risks and What to Watch

Shares fell 6.35 percent to USD 156.14 on October 8 after a 20.5 percent five-session gain, per published market data, reflecting profit-taking and PJM regulatory uncertainty. Management is expected to update 2026 and 2027 guidance on the call, though a 2027 update may wait for Cogentrix to close. Analysts have trimmed 2027 and 2028 revenue estimates since June 30, by roughly 4 percent and 3 percent. Investors will also watch Texas load growth, where the chief executive still projects 115 to 120 gigawatts of load by 2030, derivative swings and the Meta contribution. Estimates came from published sources and were not independently verified, and none of these figures is a forecast.

Where Things Stand

The company is Vistra (NYSE:VST), and the answer to the headline question is that its near-total hedging supports the earnings guide while limiting upside from higher power prices. The USD 6.8 billion to USD 7.6 billion EBITDA range and the AI-driven Demand story are supportive, but guidance changes, Cogentrix timing and PJM rules are the swing factors. The next catalyst is the November 6 release and 10:00 a.m. ET call, where third quarter EBITDA near USD 2.1 billion and any 2027 update will matter most.