Weekly Market Wrap: Fed Cuts, Record Highs, Commodities Swings, and TikTok Deal Progress

                                                       Source: Krish Capital Pty Ltd

Index Update

Last week, the Dow rose 1.05%, the S&P 500 climbed 1.22%, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 2.21%, with all three indexes reaching new record highs. The rally was driven by the Fed’s expected 25-basis-point rate cut—its first since December—along with signals of two more cuts later this year. Investors also tracked a lengthy discussion between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, during which Trump pointed to progress on trade, fentanyl, and a possible TikTok deal. On Sunday, Trump further noted that Rupert Murdoch and his son Lachlan are likely to be involved in shaping TikTok’s future in the U.S.

Market Movers

On Friday, the top gainers were AGM Group Holdings Inc. (+363.68%), followed by FatPipe, Inc. (+47.92%). On the contrary Brera Holdings PLC (-33.33%), and Sonnet BioTherapeutics Holdings, Inc. (-18.21%) declined the most the same day.

Commodities Update

WTI crude slipped to around $62 a barrel and Brent to $66.3, reversing early gains as traders balanced escalating geopolitical risks with demand concerns and rising supply. Heightened tensions included Russian strikes near Ukraine’s border with Poland, Baltic airspace violations, and the EU’s 19th sanctions package targeting Russian LNG and vessels. In the Middle East, recognition of Palestine by several nations ahead of a UN summit added to uncertainty, while Iraq’s higher exports amid easing OPEC+ cuts pressured prices further.

Gold surged to a record $3,710 per ounce, fueled by safe-haven demand, Fed policy expectations, and strong central bank and ETF buying. Investors anticipate two more rate cuts this year after the Fed’s recent 25 bps reduction, while geopolitical instability and U.S. tariff concerns continue to bolster bullion’s 40% rally year-to-date.

Macro Updates

The dollar index climbed above 97.7 on Monday, marking a fourth straight gain as traders looked ahead to Fed speeches and Friday’s PCE inflation data. The greenback strengthened broadly, with the largest advances against the euro, yen, and New Zealand dollar. The move follows last week’s quarter-point Fed rate cut—the first since December—along with guidance for two more cuts this year, while Fed Governor Stephen Miran is set to defend his dissent in favor of a larger 50 bps cut.

Bonds Commentary

Dollar Index Extends Rally Ahead of Fed Speeches and Inflation Data

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 4.15% on Monday, extending its rally for a fourth straight session as investors awaited key Fed speeches and Friday’s PCE inflation report. Markets are watching closely after last week’s 25 bps rate cut—the first since December—with officials signaling two more cuts possible this year. Attention is also on Fed Governor Stephen Miran, who dissented in favor of a larger 50 bps cut and plans to defend his stance publicly.

U.S. Firms to Gain Control of TikTok Algorithm Under Pending Deal

The White House announced that U.S. companies will oversee TikTok’s algorithm and Americans will hold most board seats in its U.S. operations under a soon-to-be-signed deal with China. The agreement, backed by President Trump and reportedly approved by Chinese President Xi Jinping, aims to address national security concerns as Washington pushes to separate TikTok’s U.S. arm from parent ByteDance. While Beijing has not confirmed Xi’s approval, China’s Commerce Ministry said it supports negotiations within market rules and Chinese law.

Futures Update

U.S. stock index futures edged lower Monday after last week’s rally on Fed rate cuts. Dow futures fell 0.3%, S&P 500 dropped 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.2%. This comes after Wall Street hit record highs Friday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq logging a third straight weekly gain, driven by the Fed’s 25 bps rate cut and signals of further easing.