United States equity markets are positioned for a lower open on Monday, March 2, 2026, as investors digest a sharp “risk-off” shift tied to weekend geopolitical developments and the resulting jump in energy prices. 
Early indications from index futures point to broad downside pressure, with losses led by growth-heavy contracts. Near the end of February’s final session (Friday, February 27), the major U.S. benchmarks also finished lower, leaving sentiment fragile heading into the new month. 
Opening Market Bell
U.S. equity index futures were down in pre-market trading. Around early morning readings, S&P 500 futures were lower by roughly 1.9% and Nasdaq 100 futures were down by about 1.40%, while Dow futures were down by 1.13%. 
Friday’s cash-market closes provide the immediate reference point for today’s gap risk:
  • The S&P 500 ended Friday at 6,878.88 (down 0.43%). 
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended Friday at 48,977.92 (down 1.05%). 
  • The Nasdaq Composite ended Friday at 22,668.21 (down 0.92%). 
With futures trading below key late-February reference levels, the opening tone is likely to be headline-driven, with macro data later in the morning acting as a volatility amplifier rather than the primary narrative. 
Global signals and cross-asset moves
Overnight global markets reflected a defensive posture. European equities opened sharply lower, while Asia was mixed—stronger energy-linked pockets offset broader declines in risk-sensitive areas. 
Commodity moves were central to the global tape. Oil futures surged sharply while gold also advanced, consistent with investors hedging geopolitical and inflation risks:
  • WTI crude futures were up about 7–8% in early pricing. 
  • Brent crude futures were also up around 8% in early pricing. 
  • Gold futures were higher by roughly 2–3% in early pricing. 
Currency markets also signaled risk aversion, with the U.S. dollar stronger versus the Japanese yen in early trading. 
Key catalysts for the session
The dominant near-term driver is geopolitics. Over the weekend, coordinated U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran escalated tensions in the Middle East, with reporting indicating the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and subsequent retaliatory actions involving Hezbollah. 
Markets are treating energy supply risk as the immediate transmission channel. With renewed focus on the Strait of Hormuz—a major transit route for global oil and LNG—oil-price sensitivity is likely to remain elevated through the session. 
On the policy and rates front, investors are also navigating a backdrop of inflation concern and recalibrating expectations for future easing by the Federal Reserve. Recent inflation data—combined with the oil shock—has reinforced the view that policy could stay restrictive for longer than markets had hoped. 
Today’s scheduled U.S. data is concentrated in manufacturing:
  • A “Manufacturing PMI” release is scheduled for 9:45 a.m. ET (with forecasts cited near 51.2 in calendar listings). 
  • The Institute for Supply Management ISM Manufacturing PMI is due at 10:00 a.m. ET; ISM’s release calendar indicates the Manufacturing PMI posts on the first business day of each month. 
Markets will also be watching ISM subcomponents (employment and prices) for clues on labor momentum and input-cost pressures—especially relevant if energy price increases persist. 
Corporate calendar and earnings update
Earnings activity is active for a Monday, with a mix of travel/leisure, industrials, energy, and growth software names on the calendar. A weekly earnings schedule highlights notable reports both before the open and after the close. 
Before-the-open reports highlighted on the calendar include Norwegian Cruise Line, ADT, Sealed Air, and California Resources. 
After-the-close reports highlighted include MongoDB, Plug Power, Riot Platforms, and Credo Technology Group. 
Two event-driven names also stand out because their reporting timing is explicitly confirmed:
  • EchoStar scheduled a conference call for 11:00 a.m. ET on March 2 to discuss fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results (with results distributed prior to the call). 
  • AST SpaceMobile scheduled a webcast event at 5:00 p.m. ET on March 2 for its results presentation. 
Given the day’s geopolitical backdrop, guidance language around demand elasticity, fuel/transport costs, and risk management could matter as much as reported EPS for several sectors. 
Dividends and ex-dividend dynamics
Ex-dividend activity is notable today, which can create stock-specific price adjustments at the open and influence sector-level flows—particularly in large-cap financials, industrials, and defensives. A dividend calendar listing shows numerous U.S.-listed names with ex-dividend dates on Monday, March 2, 2026. 
Mechanically, the ex-dividend date is set by exchange rules and is usually the record date (or one business day before if the record date is not a business day). Stocks may drop by roughly the dividend amount on the ex-dividend date, all else equal. 
Notable examples flagged with ex-dividend dates on March 2 include Nike, McKesson, Allstate, Sherwin-Williams, and Moody's. 
One especially watchlisted dividend item is LyondellBasell, which set March 2 as its ex-dividend and record date for a $0.69 quarterly dividend payable March 9, alongside a disclosed reduction versus the prior quarter dividend. 
Opening bell, scenarios, and risks
A concise read of premarket inputs suggests a risk-off open is the base case.
Indicator
What it’s signaling into the open
U.S. index futures
Broadly lower, with tech/growth underperforming 
Global equities
Europe down; Asia mixed; volatility elevated 
Oil and gold
Sharp rise in oil and strong gold bid = energy/inflation + safety hedging 
Dollar/FX
Dollar stronger vs yen in early trade, consistent with defensive positioning 
Scheduled macro
Manufacturing PMI/ISM PMI later this morning adds event risk 
Corporate catalysts
Earnings after the close (software/AI-adjacent and cyclicals) keep idiosyncratic risk high 
Sector performance into the open is likely to be uneven. Premarket trading indicated pressure in airlines and financials, while defense-related names and some metals-linked equities were firmer amid a flight to safety and heightened geopolitical uncertainty. 
Examples highlighted in premarket trading included declines in Delta Air Lines and United Airlines, weakness in banks such as Bank of America and Citigroup, and relative strength in defense-linked names such as Lockheed Martin and RTX. 
From a short-term “levels” perspective (purely as reference points rather than predictive targets), the overnight move has already tested below late-February intraday ranges:
  • S&P 500: Friday’s day low was 6,831.74, while S&P 500 futures were trading near 6,826 in early pricing—putting the late-February lows in immediate focus. 
  • Dow: Friday’s low was 48,678.78, while Dow futures were around 48,528 early—also below the prior session’s low. 
The primary risks for the session are clustered around (a) additional geopolitical headlines and any further disruption concerns tied to oil transit routes, (b) inflation expectations re-accelerating if energy remains elevated, and (c) the market’s sensitivity to manufacturing PMI/ISM releases given already-fragile risk appetite. 

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