U.S. Futures Edge Higher as Government Shutdown Ends; Oil Slumps, Gold Gains, and Treasury Yields Rise

Index Update:  U.S. stock futures fluctuated on Thursday after the Dow’s record close, as investors awaited key economic data delayed by the historic government shutdown, which could influence upcoming Fed policy decisions. Market odds of a 25 bps rate cut next month eased to 54% from 65% the day before. Among major tech stocks, Apple and Meta rose 0.4% premarket, while Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet, Tesla, and Broadcom edged lower. Cisco jumped over 7% after lifting its full-year outlook, whereas Disney fell 0.5% and Applied Materials ticked up 0.1% ahead of earnings.

Market Movers:  On Wednesday, the top gainers were Spruce Power Holding Corporation (+54.75%), followed by FTC Solar, Inc. (+49.19%). On the contrary Sanara MedTech Inc. (-24.71%), and Energy Vault Holdings, Inc. (-19.81%) declined the most the same day.

Commodities Update:  Crude oil prices extended losses on Thursday, with WTI trading near $58.8 and Brent around $63 per barrel after a 4% drop, as oversupply fears deepened. The IEA warned of a growing market imbalance, projecting global surpluses of 2.4 million barrels per day this year and 4 million next, as supply growth continues to outpace demand. It also revised its long-term outlook, expecting oil consumption to keep rising through 2050. OPEC maintained its demand forecast but noted a Q3 supply surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, while rising U.S. output and inventory builds added pressure. Meanwhile, gold prices surged above $4,230 per ounce, a three-week high, boosted by expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts following the end of the U.S. government shutdown and signs of labor market weakness.

Macro Updates:  President Donald Trump signed a funding bill ending the record 43-day U.S. government shutdown, after the House approved it 222–209 and the Senate passed it earlier. The legislation reopens federal operations but sets a new funding deadline of January 30, requiring further negotiations to prevent another shutdown. The move ends the longest federal closure in U.S. history, offering relief to government workers and public services.

Bonds Commentary:  The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose 3 bps to 4.09% on Thursday after President Trump signed a short-term funding bill, ending the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. The move allows delayed economic data to resume, though the October jobs and CPI reports may not be released. Markets now see a 60% chance of a 25 bps Fed rate cut in December, down from 67% a day earlier. ADP data showing private employers cutting about 11,250 jobs per week highlighted ongoing labor market weakness, while the new 10-year note auction saw a modest tail.

Futures Update:  U.S. stock futures rose on Thursday following the end of the prolonged federal government shutdown. Dow futures were up 0.2%, S&P 500 futures gained 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.2%. On Wednesday, the Dow closed at a record high and the S&P 500 edged higher, while the Nasdaq fell amid a rotation away from expensive tech stocks. Sentiment was also dampened by reports suggesting higher-than-expected costs and cash burn at OpenAI, raising concerns over inflated AI-driven valuations.

Following the mixed performance during Tuesday's session, major US indices once again moved in opposite directions on Wednesday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) climbed to nearly a new record high. The S&P 500 increased by 4.31 points, or 0.06%, closing at 6,850.93. From a technical standpoint, the index is hovering near a key resistance area, suggesting potential consolidation with a bearish bias. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above the mid-point, indicating some sideways momentum. Key support levels are around 6,755, with resistance expected near 6,900.