Tech-Led Futures Rebound Amid Earnings Strength, Inflation Watch and Rising Geopolitical Risks

Index Update:  Micron Technology surged about 7% in extended trading after posting stronger-than-expected quarterly results and issuing an upbeat outlook. Attention now turns to upcoming earnings from major companies including Nike, FedEx and CarMax. Earlier in regular trading, U.S. equities declined, led by sharp losses in AI-linked semiconductor stocks, with the Nasdaq underperforming as Oracle, Nvidia, Broadcom and AMD all fell significantly.

Market Movers:  On Wednesday, the top gainers were Mega Fortune Company Limited. (+143.93%), followed by Processa Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (+122.30%). On the contrary, Jyong Biotech Ltd. (-81.04%), and Children's Place, Inc. (The) (-36.87%) declined the most the same day.

Commodities Update:  WTI and Brent crude futures extended their rebound on Thursday, climbing above $56 and $60 per barrel respectively, supported by heightened geopolitical tensions and signs of tightening U.S. supply. Oil prices were boosted by the U.S. decision to shut down maritime traffic involving sanctioned Venezuelan oil tankers and the prospect of tougher sanctions on Russia’s energy sector, raising concerns over potential global supply disruptions. Additionally, EIA data showed a larger-than-expected draw in U.S. crude inventories for a second consecutive week, including a notable decline at the Cushing hub, partially offset by increases in gasoline and distillate stocks. Gold eased slightly to around $4,330 per ounce on Thursday but remained close to record highs, supported by expectations of further U.S. rate cuts and elevated geopolitical tensions. Fed comments signaling cautious but continued easing, alongside cooling U.S. labor data and rising geopolitical risks, helped sustain safe-haven demand ahead of the delayed CPI release. Silver outperformed, surging above $66 per ounce to fresh record highs as markets increasingly price in multiple U.S. rate cuts in 2026. The rally has been driven by dovish Fed commentary, signs of a weakening job market, and strong structural demand amid tightening inventories, with silver up nearly 130% year-to-date.

Macro Updates:  U.S. inflation is expected to edge up to 3.1% in November 2025, the highest since May 2024, while core inflation is forecast to remain steady at 3.0%. The CPI release has been delayed and is viewed with caution after the October report was cancelled due to the government shutdown, raising concerns about data completeness. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has also indicated it will not publish one-month changes for headline or core CPI in the November report.

Bonds Commentary:  The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield hovered around 4.14% on Thursday, staying near recent lows as investors awaited the November CPI report. Despite inflation expected to remain above the Fed’s target, markets continue to price in at least one rate cut next year. Fed commentary was mixed, with Christopher Waller signaling scope for further easing amid a softening labor market, while Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic struck a more cautious tone, seeing no need for rate cuts in 2026.

Dollar Commentary:  The dollar index held near 98.4 on Thursday, supported by gains from the prior session as investors awaited the November CPI report. Despite mixed U.S. labor data, markets continue to price in at least one Fed rate cut next year, with Fed officials offering contrasting views on the outlook for policy easing. Attention is also shifting to upcoming interest rate decisions from the European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Japan.

Futures Update:  U.S. stock index futures traded higher on Thursday, led by strong gains in technology stocks after Micron Technology delivered robust earnings and upbeat guidance. Nasdaq 100 futures outperformed, rising sharply, while S&P 500 and Dow futures posted modest gains. The rebound follows a weak prior session in which the S&P 500 and Dow extended their losing streaks to four days, and the Nasdaq Composite fell sharply, weighed down by technology names such as Oracle after reports of a major investor exiting a large data center project.

After a choppy and narrowly mixed session on Tuesday, stocks opened higher early in Wednesday’s trading but quickly came under pressure. The major indices retreated sharply from their intraday highs and moved into negative territory. The S&P 500 fell by 68.83 points, or 1.16%, to close at 6,721.42. From a technical perspective, the index faced resistance at critical levels before slipping lower, pointing to the potential for a near-term decline. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped below the midpoint, signaling weakness at current levels. Key support is seen around 6,610, with resistance anticipated near 6,833.