Tech Gains Lift Wall Street, Commodities Under Pressure, Policy Moves in Focus

                                               Source: Krish Capital Pty Ltd

Index Update

U.S. stocks closed higher Thursday, with the Dow up 0.06%, S&P 500 up 0.17%, and Nasdaq up 0.39%, led by gains in technology stocks. Nvidia rose 0.9%, AMD 3.5%, and Intel 3.8%, supported by ongoing AI enthusiasm. Sentiment was boosted by OpenAI’s $6.6 billion share sale valuing the firm at $500 billion and news of a major partnership with South Korean chipmakers. However, political uncertainty persisted as President Trump threatened mass federal job cuts amid the ongoing government shutdown, which has also delayed key economic data including September’s nonfarm payrolls report

Market Movers

On Thursday, the top gainers were Concorde International Group Ltd (+75.10%), followed by Boqii Holding Limited (+54.86%). On the contrary Masonglory Limited (-85.53%), and Hang Feng Technology Innovation Co., Ltd. (-30.15%) declined the most the same day.

Commodities Update

Oil prices edged higher Friday but stayed near four-month lows and were set for their worst week since June, pressured by expectations of further OPEC+ production hikes. Reports indicated the group may raise output by up to 500,000 barrels per day in November, led by Saudi Arabia’s push to reclaim market share. Oversupply worries deepened as U.S. inventories of crude, gasoline, and distillates rose while demand and refining activity weakened. Additional pressure came from the U.S. government shutdown, the resumption of Kurdish oil exports, and G7 pledges to tighten measures against Russia’s oil trade.

Gold traded around $3,860 per ounce, targeting a seventh straight weekly gain after touching record highs earlier this week. Safe-haven demand was supported by the partial U.S. government shutdown, delayed economic data releases, and weaker labor market signals from ADP, JOLTS, and Challenger reports. While expectations for further Fed rate cuts remain strong, gold saw mild pressure after a Fed official cautioned against excessive easing.

Macro Updates

Trump Weighs Tariff-Funded Rebates, Considers Easing UK Whisky Duties

President Trump said his administration may issue USD 1,000–2,000 rebate checks to taxpayers, funded by tariff revenues he claims could reach USD 1 trillion annually, though Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent estimated above USD 500 billion. Meanwhile, the U.S. is considering easing tariffs on imported UK whisky, currently facing a 10% duty costing distillers £20 million per month. The move, aimed at avoiding UK retaliation and supporting U.S. bourbon producers who supply barrels for scotch aging, highlights efforts to ease trade tensions and strengthen U.S.-UK cooperation.

Bessent Sees Breakthrough Ahead of Key U.S.-China Trade Talks

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled optimism for a “pretty big breakthrough” in U.S.-China trade negotiations, with President Trump and President Xi set to meet at the late-October South Korea summit. Soybean purchases remain a central issue as China has yet to buy from this year’s U.S. harvest, heightening farmer concerns. To offset losses, Bessent said new support measures for U.S. farmers will be unveiled next Tuesday. The talks come ahead of the Nov. 10 tariff truce deadline, with China pressing the U.S. on tariffs, export controls, and investment restrictions.

Bonds Commentary

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield held near 4.1% Friday as markets priced in a Fed rate cut this month and another by December. While the government shutdown has had limited immediate impact, it raised concerns over fiscal uncertainty, inflation, and labor market weakness. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent cautioned the lapse could hurt GDP, while President Trump threatened mass federal layoffs. The shutdown also delayed key data, including September’s nonfarm payrolls report.

Futures Update

U.S. stock index futures rose Friday, with the Dow up 0.4%, S&P 500 up 0.3%, and Nasdaq 100 up 0.3%, following another record-setting session on Wall Street. Gains were driven by tech and AI-related chip stocks, though momentum appeared to be easing as the government shutdown entered its third day and payroll data remained delayed. For the week so far, the S&P 500 is up 1.1%, the Dow 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 1.6%.