Markets Steady Amid Trade Uncertainty; Oil Climbs, Gold Dips, and Logistics Rebound

Image Source : Krish Capital Pty Ltd

Index Update: U.S. stocks posted modest gains Monday despite escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all rose, as investors looked ahead to a potential call between Presidents Trump and Xi for clarity on trade. Meanwhile, the EU criticized Trump’s proposal to double steel tariffs, warning it could hinder negotiations. Markets now await key economic data and earnings reports from companies including Dollar General, Signet Jewelers, and Nio.

Market Movers: On Monday, the top gainers were Lyra Therapeutics, Inc. (+310.75%), followed by ModivCare Inc. (+96.43%). On the contrary Huachen AI Parking Management Technology Holding Co. (-36.58%) and Basel Medical Group Ltd (-35.53%) declined the most the same day.

Commodities Update: Oil prices climbed for a second consecutive session, with WTI and Brent crude rising to around $63.1 and $65.1 per barrel, respectively. The gains were driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, including stalled peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, Iran's rejection of a U.S. nuclear proposal, and a wildfire in Alberta disrupting production. Additionally, OPEC+ maintained its current pace of output increases, easing concerns over a sudden supply surge. Gold prices dipped below $3,360 per ounce after a strong rally, as a rebound in the U.S. dollar weighed on the metal. The previous session saw gold jump 2.8% amid rising trade and geopolitical tensions, including threats from President Trump to double tariffs and renewed friction between the U.S. and China. Investors now await a possible meeting between Trump and President Xi Jinping, while the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to add uncertainty.

Macro Update: The U.S. Logistics Manager’s Index (LMI) rose to 59.4 in May 2025, signaling stabilization after recent volatility. Smaller firms led the growth with a strong LMI of 63.1, while larger firms lagged at 56.2. The data showed slowing inventory levels near neutral at 51.5, alongside rising costs, especially inventory costs, which jumped to 78.4, their highest since October 2022.

Futures Update: U.S. stock index futures edged lower as investors remained cautious amid uncertainty over President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs and the outlook for the U.S. economy. Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 futures all posted modest declines. This followed a mixed session where major indices closed higher, though concerns over renewed U.S.-China trade tensions tempered risk appetite. The S&P 500 saw a moderate gain, the Nasdaq outperformed, and the Dow posted a slight increase.

Stocks faced downward pressure early in Monday’s session but experienced a notable turnaround as the day progressed. The S&P 500 gained 24.27 points, or 0.41%, closing at 5,935.95. Technical analysis indicates that the index is approaching a confluence zone that previously acted as resistance, suggesting a potential period of consolidation before a significant move, as discussed in prior commentary and reflected in chart patterns. Furthermore, the formation of a golden cross between key moving averages points to a possible shift toward a more bullish outlook, which may provide support in the near term. Support levels are estimated around 5,777, with resistance near 6,047.