Markets Rebound on Easing Supply Fears, but Oil Surge and Fed Uncertainty Keep Sentiment Fragile

Index Update:  U.S. equities rebounded on Monday, with the S&P 500 rising 1.1%, the Dow gaining 1%, and the Nasdaq advancing 1.2%, as easing concerns over energy supply disruptions—following successful tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz—helped stabilize sentiment. Lower oil prices and declining Treasury yields supported a rotation into credit-sensitive sectors, with technology and banking stocks leading gains, while chipmakers outperformed on continued AI optimism. Nvidia, Micron, and Meta posted notable advances, although overall trading volumes remained subdued amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

Market Movers:  On Monday, the top gainers were Urgent.ly AirSculpt Technologies, Inc. (+51.62%). On the contrary, Nasus Pharma Ltd. (-38.0%), and FreeCast, Inc. (-36.48%) declined the most the same day.

Commodities Update:  Oil prices rebounded sharply on Tuesday, with WTI rising over 3% to USD 96.4 per barrel and Brent climbing above USD 103 per barrel, as escalating Iran–Israel tensions disrupted Middle East energy infrastructure and tightened global supply. Attacks on key assets, including the UAE’s Shah gas field and Iraqi oil facilities, along with halted loadings from Fujairah and the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, intensified supply concerns. Despite a brief pullback following a U.S. emergency reserve release, crude prices remain up more than 40% since the conflict began, while geopolitical uncertainty persists amid limited international support for U.S. efforts to secure regional shipping routes. Gold traded near USD 5,010 per ounce on Tuesday, holding steady as safe-haven demand from escalating Iran-related geopolitical tensions was offset by rising inflation concerns driven by higher energy prices, which dampened expectations for rate cuts. Meanwhile, silver slipped to around USD 80 per ounce, near a one-month low, as markets weighed similar inflation risks and the likelihood of major central banks—including the Fed, ECB, BoE, and BoJ—maintaining current policy rates. Despite near-term pressure, silver remains supported by strong year-to-date gains and expectations of future supply deficits alongside solid industrial demand.

Macro Updates:  Dollar Stabilizes Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty and Fed Caution

The dollar index steadied just below 100 on Tuesday after prior weakness, as investors evaluated the impact of Middle East tensions and fluctuating oil prices on inflation and economic outlook. The greenback had declined earlier on easing oil prices and reduced inflation concerns following safe tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz, alongside U.S. signals permitting continued Iranian crude shipments. Market focus now shifts to the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, where rates are expected to remain unchanged, with attention on guidance regarding energy-driven inflation and future rate expectations.

Private Sector Hiring Momentum Slows Sharply

U.S. private employers added an average of 9,000 jobs per week in the four weeks ending February 28, 2026, down from a revised 14,750 in the prior period, signaling a notable slowdown in hiring and a loss of recent labor market momentum.

Bonds Commentary

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to around 4.24% on Tuesday, rebounding from the prior session’s decline, as investors assessed the economic and inflationary impact of Middle East tensions and volatile oil prices. Yields had eased earlier on lower oil prices and reduced inflation concerns following safe tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz, alongside U.S. support for continued Iranian crude shipments. Market focus now turns to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision, with expectations of unchanged policy and close attention on its outlook for energy-driven inflation and interest rates.

Futures Update

U.S. stock futures edged lower on Tuesday after the previous session’s rally, as rising oil prices weighed on market sentiment. Dow futures fell 0.1%, S&P 500 futures slipped 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures declined 0.2%.

After experiencing a notable decline over the past few sessions, stocks rebounded strongly during Monday’s trading, with all major averages moving significantly higher, led by the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The S&P 500 climbed by 67.17 points, or 1.01%, finishing the day at 6,699.37. From a technical perspective, the index found support at critical levels and will need to maintain these areas, highlighted by the boxed region on the chart. The 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which had been trending upward, has recently begun to slope downward—potentially indicating a shift in momentum following the extended rally, a development we've been monitoring since the start of the week. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below its midpoint, suggesting a more cautious near-term outlook. Key levels to watch include immediate support around 6,590, which could serve as a bounce zone, and near-term resistance at approximately 6,755.