Key Index Moves, Commodities Trends, Macro Signals, and Futures Disruptions

Index Update:  In November, the S&P 500 is down 0.4% in what could be its first monthly loss since April, the Dow has slipped 0.3%, and the Nasdaq has fallen over 2%, ending a seven-month rally as worries about stretched AI valuations weighed on tech stock.

Market Movers:  On Wednesday, the top gainers were SMX (Security Matters) Public Limited Company. (+194.42%), followed by Mobile-health Network Solutions (+39.47%). On the contrary PagerDuty, Inc. (-23.32%), and Ambarella, Inc. (-18.78%) declined the most the same day.

Commodities Update:  WTI crude hovered near $59 per barrel and Brent below $63, with both benchmarks set for a fourth straight monthly decline—their longest losing streak in over two years—amid growing oversupply concerns as OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers increase output. Hopes for a potential Russia–Ukraine breakthrough, which could eventually bring more Russian crude back to market, added to the bearish sentiment, though a quick agreement remains unlikely. Traders now await Sunday’s virtual OPEC+ meeting, where output increases are expected to remain on hold. Gold traded around $4,160 per ounce, near a two-week high and set for a fourth consecutive monthly gain, supported by rising expectations of a December Fed rate cut. Comments from Fed officials, weak economic data, and support from figures linked to the incoming administration have pushed the market to price an over 80% chance of a 25 bps cut and multiple additional cuts through 2026. Robust central-bank demand and strong ETF inflows continue to underpin gold’s strongest annual performance since 1979.

Macro Updates:  The dollar index held near 99.6 on Friday, stabilizing after recent losses and set to end the month little changed, though it fell about 0.5% for the week as markets increased bets on Fed rate cuts. Expectations for a December cut rose to roughly 87%, supported by reports that Kevin Hassett—seen as favoring lower rates—is the frontrunner for the next Fed chair. Safe-haven demand weakened amid progress in Ukraine peace discussions, while the dollar headed for its biggest weekly drop against the kiwi after the RBNZ signaled an end to its easing cycle.

Bonds Commentary:  The 10-year US Treasury yield fell to about 4%, its lowest in nearly a month, as markets sharply increased expectations for Fed rate cuts—pricing in an 85% chance of a December 25 bps cut and three more by end-2026. Sentiment was boosted by reports that Kevin Hassett, viewed as favoring lower rates, is the frontrunner for the next Fed chair. Meanwhile, jobless claims fell and durable goods orders beat forecasts, and the FDIC plans to ease SLR rules to allow major banks to hold more Treasuries.

Futures Update:  U.S. stock index futures were little changed on Friday before a cooling-system failure at a Chicago-area data center caused a trading outage at the CME, disrupting futures activity. With markets reopening after Thanksgiving for a shortened, low-volume session, the disruption risks amplifying volatility. No major economic data releases are slated for the day.

Stocks generally moved higher throughout Wednesday's trading session, continuing the upward momentum seen in recent sessions. The S&P 500 increased by 46.71 points, or 0.69%, closing at 6812.60. From a technical standpoint, the index maintained support at significant levels and steadily advanced. Furthermore, it remains above its key moving averages, signaling a bullish trend. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is rebounding from lower levels, reinforcing a positive outlook. Key support levels are around 6,690, with resistance anticipated near 6,890.