Investors Await Fed Decision and U.S.–China Trade Talks

Index Update:  U.S. stocks rallied Monday, with the Dow up 0.71%, S&P 500 up 1.23%, and Nasdaq rising 1.86%, driven by optimism over a U.S.-China trade framework covering rare earths, soybeans, and TikTok. Investors expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 bps on Wednesday, while attention also turns to major tech earnings and Amazon’s largest-ever layoffs starting Tuesday

Market Movers:  On Monday, the top gainers were Click Holdings Limited (+68.44%), followed by Avidity Biosciences, Inc. (+42.42%). On the contrary Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. (-42.23%), and Smart Logistics Global Limited (-41.18%) declined the most the same day.

Commodities Update:  Oil and gold prices fell sharply on Tuesday amid shifting global sentiment. WTI and Brent crude each dropped over 1%, marking a third straight loss, as OPEC+ signaled a possible December output hike led by Saudi Arabia, stoking supply glut fears. Meanwhile, gold slid over 2% to a three-week low below USD 3,900 per ounce as optimism over a potential U.S.-China trade deal reduced safe-haven demand. Markets now await the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, with expectations of a 25-basis-point rate cut.

Macro Updates:  President Trump and Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi signed a framework deal to secure critical minerals and rare earth supplies, aiming to strengthen supply chains for renewable energy, electronics, and autos. The agreement promotes joint investment, fair markets, and reduced reliance on China, which dominates global processing, ahead of Trump’s upcoming trade talks with President Xi.

Bonds Commentary:  The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield held near 3.98% on Tuesday as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 bps following soft inflation data, with markets watching for clues on a potential December cut and QT easing. Focus also remains on the upcoming Trump–Xi meeting to finalize a broad trade deal.

Futures Update:  U.S. stock futures traded mostly flat on Tuesday, holding near record highs as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting. Dow futures rose 0.2%, S&P 500 slipped 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 gained 0.1%. Major indexes hit fresh record closes Monday amid optimism over the upcoming Trump–Xi meeting easing U.S.-China trade tensions.

Following a sharp rally at the start of the session, stocks maintained a strong performance throughout Monday's trading day. The S&P 500 rose by 83.47 points, or 1.23%, closing at 6,875.15. From a technical perspective, the index found support at critical levels and gradually moved higher, suggesting the potential for sustained upward momentum in the near term. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is increasing above the midpoint, further supporting a positive outlook. Key support levels are around 6,755, with resistance expected near 6,955.