Global Markets Turn Cautious as Tech Earnings, Inflation Data, and Policy Uncertainty Shape Sentiment

Index Update:  S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 contracts down 0.4% and Dow futures falling 0.6%, as AI-related stocks extended losses following concerns about the sustainability of AI infrastructure spending after Nvidia’s earnings call. Nvidia dropped 5.5% previously and remained lower pre-market, while Broadcom, Oracle, and CrowdStrike also fell over 2%. Banking futures weakened as investors shifted toward long-duration Treasuries despite persistent inflation concerns and steady labor data. In earnings-driven moves, Dell surged 11% on strong AI server guidance, CoreWeave fell 12% after a profit miss, and Netflix gained 7% after withdrawing its bid for Warner Bros.

Market Movers:  On Thursday, the top gainers were Rackspace Technology, Inc. (+68.89%), followed by Butterfly Network, Inc. (+50.65%). On the contrary, Thryv Holdings, Inc. (-46.43%), and Eos Energy Enterprises, Inc. (-39.44%) declined the most the same day.

Commodities Update:  Oil prices edged higher, with Brent rising 0.7% to $71.29 per barrel and WTI gaining 0.8% to $65.74. However, both benchmarks remain under pressure for the week as the U.S. and Iran extended nuclear talks, easing supply disruption concerns. Brent is broadly flat week-on-week, while WTI is set to decline about 1%, partially reversing last week’s gains. Gold rose to around $5,180 per ounce, marking its seventh straight monthly gain, as investors assessed U.S. trade policy changes and geopolitical tensions. The implementation of new 10% U.S. global tariffs, with potential increases to 15% for some countries, alongside ongoing U.S.–Iran nuclear negotiations, supported safe-haven demand. However, shifting Federal Reserve expectations—with reduced odds of near-term rate cuts—tempered gains. Silver advanced nearly 2% toward $90 per ounce, heading for a second consecutive weekly rise, driven by tariff uncertainty and geopolitical risks. Nonetheless, stronger U.S. economic data and a more hawkish Fed stance limited upside momentum in precious metals.

Macro Updates

U.S. Producer Prices Surprise to the Upside in January 2026

Core producer prices in the U.S. rose 0.8% month-over-month in January 2026, the largest increase since July and well above the 0.3% forecast, pushing the annual rate to 3.6% from 3.3%. Headline producer prices climbed 0.5% on the month, driven by a sharp 0.8% rise in services, particularly a 14.4% jump in margins for equipment wholesaling. However, goods prices fell 0.3%, mainly due to a 5.5% drop in gasoline. On a yearly basis, headline PPI increased 2.9%, slightly above expectations.

Dollar Steady as Markets Await Inflation Data and Fed Signals

The U.S. Dollar Index hovered around 97.8, trading largely flat during the week as investors awaited January’s PPI data, which is expected to show a moderation in wholesale inflation to 0.3% month-on-month. Stronger-than-expected jobless claims data signaled continued labor market resilience, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates on hold until at least June. Markets also tracked tariff uncertainties and ongoing U.S.–Iran nuclear talks. The dollar is on course to end the month higher, breaking a three-month decline.

Bonds Commentary:  The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to 4%, its lowest level in three months, as investors sought the safety of longer-term government bonds amid uncertainty over U.S. economic policy and geopolitical tensions, including renewed U.S.–Iran nuclear talks. The decline came despite persistent inflation and a stable labor market, with traders now expecting the Fed’s first rate cut in July. Meanwhile, shorter-term Treasuries lagged due to rising bill supply, even as the Fed continued short-term security purchases.

Futures Update:  U.S. stock futures edged lower on Friday, signaling a cautious close to the week as investors assessed major technology earnings and their implications for the artificial intelligence trade. Dow futures fell 0.4%, S&P 500 futures slipped 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures were largely flat. In corporate developments, Paramount Skydance appears poised to win the bidding battle for Warner Bros. Discovery after Netflix withdrew, Anthropic is reportedly in a dispute with the Pentagon, and Jack Dorsey’s Block announced plans to cut about half its workforce. Meanwhile, oil prices moved slightly higher.

After rallying sharply over the previous two trading sessions, stocks pulled back during Thursday’s session. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite moved notably lower, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to close slightly higher. The S&P 500 declined 37.25 points, or 0.54%, to finish at 6,808.87. From a technical standpoint, the index is currently experiencing range-bound trading and may continue to move within a defined range unless price action sweeps liquidity on either side. A decisive breakout beyond this range could set the stage for a clearer directional move. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near its midpoint, further reflecting indecision at current levels. Immediate support is located around 6,777, marking a potential bounce zone, while near-term resistance is seen near 6,910.