Global Markets Steady as Investors Navigate Tech Valuations, Energy Supply Risks, and Policy Uncertainty

Index Update:  U.S. indexes were broadly flat as investors remained cautious. Nvidia traded sideways despite beating earnings expectations, reflecting market skepticism over whether AI-related capital expenditure growth has been overstated. Salesforce fell 3% after issuing a subdued sales outlook, while broader software-as-a-service stocks faced pressure amid concerns that AI automation could disrupt the sector. Energy stocks also edged lower as U.S.–Iran nuclear talks raised uncertainty over sanctions policy and oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Market Movers:  On Wednesday, the top gainers were Braiin Limited (+79.35%), followed by Larimar Therapeutics, Inc. (+61.25%). On the contrary, ODDITY Tech Ltd. (-49.21%), and MannKind Corporation (-36.82%) declined the most the same day.

Commodities Update:  Oil prices declined sharply, with WTI falling over 1.5% to around $64 per barrel and Brent slipping below $70, as markets assessed renewed U.S.–Iran nuclear negotiations alongside rising crude exports from major Middle Eastern producers. Despite fresh U.S. sanctions on Iranian-linked entities, signals of diplomatic flexibility and expectations of a global supply surplus pressured prices. Saudi Arabia is set to ship its highest crude volumes in nearly three years, while exports from Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE have also increased. Investors are now focused on the upcoming OPEC+ meeting for guidance on future production policy. Meanwhile, gold held firm near a four-week high above $5,180 per ounce, supported by geopolitical tensions, U.S. military buildup in the Middle East, and ongoing trade policy uncertainty, including potential tariff hikes to 15%. Silver retreated toward $87 per ounce after recently touching a three-week high but remains up for the week. Persistent inflation concerns have also pushed expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next rate cut to September, reinforcing cautious sentiment across commodity markets.

Macro Updates:  Geopolitical Tensions Rise Amid U.S.–Iran Nuclear Talks

U.S. and Iranian officials are holding a third round of nuclear negotiations in Geneva, contributing to market unease. President Donald Trump warned of potential consequences if progress is not made, while the U.S. has expanded its military presence in the Middle East. Any escalation could threaten oil supplies from Iran, OPEC’s third-largest crude producer.

Dollar Weakens Amid Tariff Uncertainty and Geopolitical Caution

The dollar index fell to around 97.5, marking a second straight session of losses as uncertainty over potential U.S. tariff hikes weighed on sentiment. Trade officials signaled that rates could rise to 15% or higher, while President Trump reaffirmed his tariff stance despite legal setbacks. Markets also remained cautious ahead of U.S.–Iran nuclear talks, with the Federal Reserve expected to keep rates steady. The dollar additionally softened against the yen amid speculation of a possible Bank of Japan rate hike.

Bonds Commentary:  The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield declined to around 4.04% as tariff uncertainty increased demand for safe-haven assets. Trade officials signaled potential tariff hikes to 15% or higher, while President Trump reaffirmed his stance despite the Supreme Court striking down earlier measures. Markets also remain cautious ahead of U.S.–Iran nuclear talks, with the Federal Reserve widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged next month.

Futures Update:  U.S. stock index futures traded slightly lower Thursday morning as investors assessed Nvidia’s earnings and awaited renewed U.S.–Iran nuclear talks. Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 futures each declined around 0.1% in early trading.

Stocks moved mostly higher during Wednesday’s trading session, building on the strong gains recorded previously. With the continued advance, both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 more than recovered the steep losses suffered on Monday. The S&P 500 rose 56.06 points, or 0.81%, finishing at 6,946.12. From a technical perspective, the index maintained support at key levels and trended steadily upward throughout the day, suggesting the potential for further short-term gains. In addition, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) moved back above its midpoint, which could encourage additional buying momentum. Immediate support is seen near 6,870, representing a possible bounce zone, while resistance is located around 7,005.