Global Markets Steady Ahead of Fed Signals and U.S.-Ukraine Peace Talks

Image Source : Krish Capital Pty Ltd

Index Update:  The Dow rose 1.71%, the S&P 500 gained 0.94%, and the Nasdaq added 0.81% last week, with all hitting record highs as markets priced in a possible Fed rate cut in September. Investors now await the Jackson Hole symposium for policy signals and key retail earnings from Home Depot, Lowe’s, Walmart, and Target, while geopolitical focus shifts to Trump’s meeting with Ukraine’s Zelenskiy on Russia peace talks.

Market Movers:  On Friday, the top gainers were IO Biotech, Inc. (+68.75%), followed by Precigen, Inc. (+58.92%). On the contrary NUSATRIP INCORPORATED (-90.65%), and  PROPANC BIOPHARMA INC (-72.40%) declined the most the same day.

Commodities Update:  WTI crude climbed above $63 per barrel and Brent above $66 on Monday as markets focused on a high-level meeting in Washington between U.S. President Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, and key European leaders to push for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal. Trump indicated he would urge Zelenskiy toward a quick settlement and signaled less urgency on sanctions against Russia, softening his earlier stance. Despite the rebound, oil prices remain down over 10% this month amid concerns about Trump’s tariffs and increased OPEC+ supply. Gold rose to around $3,340 per ounce after earlier hitting a two-week low, as investors awaited the outcome of Trump’s talks with Zelenskiy following Friday’s inconclusive summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Attention is also on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming Jackson Hole remarks and meeting minutes, as markets anticipate a possible September rate cut.

Macro Updates:  U.S. Expands Steel and Aluminum Tariffs to 407 Additional Products

The Trump administration has broadened its 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to include 407 new product codes under the U.S. Harmonized Tariff Schedule, effective August 18. Non-steel and non-aluminum components remain subject to existing duties, while President Trump hinted at further tariff measures, including potential levies on semiconductor imports.

Bonds Commentary:  The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hovered near 4.3% as markets awaited Trump’s meeting with Ukraine’s Zelenskiy and the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium. Trump plans to push for a quick settlement after inconclusive talks with Putin, who agreed to allow U.S. and European security guarantees for Ukraine in a future deal. Meanwhile, markets see an 84% chance of a 25 bps Fed rate cut in September, with stronger inflation and retail data dimming odds of a 50 bps move, ahead of Powell’s guidance at Jackson Hole.

Futures Update:  U.S. stock futures edged higher Sunday as investors awaited the upcoming Fed meeting in Jackson Hole, following a U.S.-Russia summit that yielded no major breakthroughs. Dow futures rose about 0.1%, S&P 500 gained 0.2%, and Nasdaq-100 added 0.3%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin dropped below $116,000 after earlier gains, gold climbed, and crude oil held steady as concerns over additional U.S. restrictions on Russian oil exports eased.

Following a lackluster performance in the previous session, stocks mostly declined during trading on Friday. The S&P 500 dropped by 18.74 points, or 0.29%, closing at 6,449.79. From a technical standpoint, the index appears to be facing resistance at higher levels and may experience a pullback to the downside in the near term. The 14-day RSI is showing divergence compared to the price action, which has triggered profit-taking. Key support around 6,344 and resistance near 6,520.