Global Markets Snapshot: Earnings Volatility, Rising Yields, and Geopolitical Tensions Drive Investor Sentiment

Index Update

Investors shifted focus to a new round of corporate earnings, driving sharp moves across several major stocks. Eli Lilly surged over 6% premarket after beating earnings and revenue expectations and issuing strong 2026 guidance, while Alphabet and Qualcomm posted modest gains ahead of their results. In contrast, AMD slumped nearly 9% on a weak outlook despite record quarterly revenue, and Uber fell 7.5% after missing on both earnings and guidance. Amgen and Chubb edged lower despite mixed results.

Markets also remained cautious around richly valued technology stocks amid concerns about AI-driven disruption and heavy spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure, with particular attention on Alphabet’s earnings and its aggressive AI investments. Meanwhile, investors are awaiting the ADP employment report for further clues on U.S. labor market strength, alongside additional earnings from companies such as AbbVie and Chipotle, the latter slipping on continued declines in customer traffic.

Market Movers

On Tuesday, the top gainers were Gaxos.ai Inc. (+41.84%), followed by FatPipe, Inc. (+41.30%). On the contrary, PMGC Holdings Inc. (-40.00%), and China SXT Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (-29.93%) declined the most the same day.

Commodities Update

Oil prices extended gains on Wednesday, with WTI rising toward $64 per barrel and Brent approaching $68, as renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East unsettled energy markets. Concerns intensified after the U.S. downed an Iranian drone near a U.S. aircraft carrier and Iranian vessels harassed a U.S.-flagged tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, though Washington emphasized that diplomatic talks with Iran remain on track. Additional support came from industry data showing a sharp 11.1 million-barrel drop in U.S. crude inventories, signaling tightening supply. Meanwhile, OPEC+ indicated demand could strengthen from March or April and will soon decide whether to resume gradual output increases following a first-quarter pause.

Precious metals rebounded sharply on Wednesday, led by gold climbing to around $5,050 per ounce after posting its biggest daily gain since 2008, as dip buyers returned following a steep pullback. Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East boosted safe-haven demand, while expectations for aggressive U.S. rate cuts softened after Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Fed chair, though markets still anticipate two cuts later this year and into 2026. Silver also extended its recovery toward $90 per ounce after a historic selloff earlier in the week, with forced liquidations easing and bargain hunters stepping in. Ongoing geopolitical risks, a structural supply deficit, and steady industrial demand continued to support the metal, even as recent speculative excess had contributed to the sharp volatility.

Macro Updates

U.S. Mortgage Demand Slows as Winter Storms and Policy Uncertainty Weigh on Applications

U.S. mortgage applications declined 8.9% in the final week of January, marking a second consecutive weekly drop despite lower mortgage rates, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. The slowdown was largely driven by severe winter weather that kept potential homebuyers from property viewings, with purchase applications falling sharply by 14%. Refinancing activity proved more resilient, slipping a milder 5%, while markets also weighed uncertainty around how Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae would implement President Trump’s directive to buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities.

U.S. Extends Duty-Free African Trade Program Through 2026

President Donald Trump signed a one-year extension of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), restoring duty-free access to U.S. markets for eligible Sub-Saharan African countries through December 31, 2026, with retroactive effect from September 2025. The move revives a key trade framework that allows tariff-free exports of over 1,800 products, supporting economic growth, investment, and job creation across the region.

Bonds Commentary

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 4.27%, nearing a five-month high, as investors reassessed economic growth and Federal Reserve policy under incoming Chair Kevin Warsh. Markets moved away from the safety of bonds amid renewed strength in precious metals and shifting risk sentiment, while expectations that Warsh will take a more inflation-focused, tighter policy stance added upward pressure on yields. Further gains were supported by stronger-than-expected U.S. manufacturing data, signaling resilience in the economy and reinforcing the case for higher interest rates.

Futures Update

U.S. equity futures moved modestly higher on Wednesday as markets looked ahead to another round of major corporate earnings, following recent softness across technology and AI-linked shares. Dow Jones futures were up about 150 points, or 0.3%, while S&P 500 futures added 10 points, roughly 0.1%. Nasdaq 100 futures also inched higher by 13 points, marking a 0.1% gain.

The S&P 500 remains in a well-defined primary uptrend on the daily chart, with price holding above rising 50-, 100-, and 200-day EMAs, confirming a constructive medium-term structure. The positive EMA alignment (20 > 50 > 100 > 200) reflects persistent institutional accumulation. Recent price action shows mild consolidation below the 6,980–7,000 resistance zone following a strong advance, indicating digestion rather than reversal. The 14-day RSI near 50–54 signals neutral-to-slightly-positive momentum and healthy cooling from earlier overbought levels. Initial support is seen near 6,870, with stronger demand expected around 6,750–6,800. Overall bias remains bullish.