Global Markets Rise as Easing U.S.–China Trade Tensions Lift Sentiment Ahead of Key Data and Earnings

Index Update:  U.S. stock futures rose Monday as easing U.S.–China trade tensions lifted sentiment ahead of key earnings and inflation data. Upcoming talks between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng aim to reduce friction before a possible Trump–Xi meeting. Investors await results from major firms including Netflix, Coca-Cola, Tesla, IBM, and Intel, while Friday’s CPI report is expected to confirm persistent inflation. Markets remain cautious after last week’s volatility driven by trade concerns, regional bank stress, and AI stock profit-taking.

Market Movers:  On Friday, the top gainers were Artiva Biotherapeutics, Inc. (+116.97%), followed by Artiva Biotherapeutics, Inc. (+52.52%). On the contrary American Rebel Holdings, Inc. (-38.76%), and Sensei Biotherapeutics, Inc. (-33.43%) declined the most the same day.

Commodities Update:  Crude oil prices fell to six-month lows on Monday, with WTI at USD 57.2 and Brent near USD 61 per barrel, pressured by fears of a global supply glut following the IEA’s higher surplus forecast for 2026 and easing Middle East tensions. Losses were partly offset by a Russian gas plant shutdown after a Ukrainian drone strike. Meanwhile, gold steadied around USD 4,250 per ounce after Friday’s drop, supported by safe-haven demand amid ongoing U.S.–China trade tensions, a prolonged U.S. government shutdown, and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Macro Updates:  President Trump identified rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans as key U.S. priorities in upcoming trade talks with China, urging Beijing to curb fentanyl exports and resume soybean purchases. He warned against China restricting rare earth supplies. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed in-person negotiations will take place in Malaysia this week after a constructive virtual meeting with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng.

Bonds Commentary:  The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stayed above 4% on Monday as banking sector stability and easing U.S.–China trade tensions supported sentiment. Markets now await Friday’s CPI report, expected to show persistent inflation. The Fed is anticipated to cut rates by 25 bps next week and again in December, with further easing likely in 2026 amid labor market and inflation concerns.

Futures Update:  U.S. stock futures edged higher Monday amid optimism over renewed U.S.–China trade talks and ahead of key earnings and inflation data. As of early trade, Dow futures rose 0.2%, S&P 500 gained 0.3%, and Nasdaq 100 advanced 0.4%, following last week’s rally driven by easing trade tension comments from President Trump.

After initially showing a lack of direction early in the session, stocks generally moved higher throughout the trading day on Friday. The S&P 500 rose by 34.92 points, or 0.53%, closing at 6,664. From a technical perspective, the index remains near immediate support levels and could experience further upward movement. However, a close below the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) might signal some weakness. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around the midpoint, indicating indecision at current levels. Key support levels are around 6,500, with resistance expected near 6,720.