Global Markets Brief: U.S. Equities Edge Higher Ahead of Jobs Data as Commodities Rally and Dollar Firms

Index Update:  U.S. equity index edged slightly higher as investors looked ahead to the December jobs report, which is expected to reinforce expectations of a subdued labor market and support the case for two Fed rate cuts this year. Technology stocks were mixed, with Alphabet and Nvidia poised to open higher, while Meta futures slipped following nuclear power deals for its data centers that added scrutiny to AI-related investments. Energy stocks outperformed, led by Chevron and Valero, as markets weighed uncertainty around Venezuelan oil imports amid mixed signals from President Trump and corporate caution on operating in the country.

Market Movers:  On Thursday, the top gainers were flyExclusive, Inc. (+130.25%), followed by Creative Global Technology Holdings Limited (+118.10%). On the contrary, Kustom Entertainment, Inc. (-63.80%), and Immuneering Corporation (-43.22%) declined the most the same day.

Commodities Update:  WTI crude rose to about $58.3 per barrel and Brent to around $62.4 per barrel, extending gains of over 3% from the previous session—their strongest daily rise since last October. Sentiment was supported by renewed concerns over potential supply disruptions after President Donald Trump warned Iran of a “hard” response to any escalation against protesters. Markets also reacted to news that Trump approved a bipartisan Russia sanctions bill targeting buyers of discounted Russian oil, alongside heightened U.S. pressure on Venezuela following the seizure of oil tankers linked to the country. Gold slipped to around $4,470 per ounce as a stronger U.S. dollar ahead of key jobs data prompted profit-taking, though it remained on track for a ~3% weekly gain supported by geopolitical tensions and continued central-bank buying, particularly from China. Silver stayed below $77 per ounce, pressured by mechanical selling tied to annual commodity index rebalancing despite ongoing geopolitical risks and expectations of rate cuts later this year. Copper steadied near $5.8 per ounce after a sharp selloff, as investors balanced long-term supply constraints and energy-transition-driven demand against near-term headwinds from weakness in China’s construction sector.

Macro Updates:  U.S. nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by about 60,000 in December, slightly below November’s gain, with the unemployment rate seen easing to 4.5% and wage growth firming modestly. The data are likely to confirm a slowly expanding labor market, as hiring remains restrained by tariff uncertainty, tighter immigration, and AI-related disruptions, with some policymakers suggesting underlying job growth may be weaker than headline figures indicate.

Dollar Commentary:  The U.S. dollar index climbed toward 99, marking a fourth straight session of gains and its highest level in nearly a month, as investors positioned ahead of the December jobs report. Recent data pointed to a resilient labor market, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady in January while still pricing in cuts later this year, with the dollar also supported by a potential Supreme Court ruling on tariffs and its strongest weekly gains against the euro amid easing European inflation pressures.

Futures Update:  U.S. stock index futures ticked slightly higher on Friday, as investors remained cautious ahead of the closely watched monthly employment report and a potential Supreme Court decision on the legality of the Trump administration’s global tariff policy. Dow Jones futures were up 5 points, or 0.1%, S&P 500 futures added 5 points, or 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 40 points, or 0.2%.

After ending Wednesday’s lackluster session on the opposite side of the unchanged line, major U.S. stock indexes experienced another mixed performance during Thursday’s trading. The S&P 500 edged up by just 0.03 points, or 0.01%, closing at 6,921.45. From a technical perspective, the index remains above its key support zone and continues to show upward momentum. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above the midpoint, signaling sustained positive sentiment. The critical support level is around 6,877—an important threshold that could trigger a rebound—while resistance is likely near 6,990.