Global Market Wrap: U.S. Futures Mixed, Inflation Data Lifts Yields, Commodities Steady Ahead of Geopolitical Talks

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Index Update:  U.S. stock futures edged higher, with the Dow poised for its first record since last year as markets weighed tariff impacts ahead of Trump’s summit with Putin. Strong retail sales data boosted confidence in consumer strength, while import prices rose unexpectedly. UnitedHealth surged after Berkshire Hathaway’s investment, while Applied Materials dropped sharply on weak quarterly results.

Market Movers:  On Thursday, the top gainers were Sonoma Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (+72,67%), followed by TeraWulf Inc. (+59.52%). On the contrary Bolt Projects Holdings, Inc.(-40.64%), and  MasterBeef Group (-39.81%) declined the most the same day.

Commodities Update:  Oil prices eased after earlier gains as traders turned cautious ahead of U.S.-Russia talks aimed at resolving the Ukraine conflict, with Trump warning of severe consequences if no deal is reached. Concerns about potential sanctions on major oil buyers tempered sentiment, though strong Japanese economic data and expectations of a U.S. rate cut supported demand outlook. For the week, crude markets remained largely muted. Gold hovered near $3,340 per ounce, heading for its weakest week since late June, as hotter U.S. inflation data reduced expectations for a large Fed rate cut. Markets now anticipate smaller, gradual cuts starting in September, while investors await Fed Chair Powell’s policy signals at Jackson Hole amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

Macro Updates U.S. Export Prices Edge Higher in July

U.S. export prices rose 0.1% in July, matching expectations and following a 0.5% increase in June. Nonagricultural exports saw gains from automotive, capital, and consumer goods, while agricultural prices were flat as meat and vegetable increases offset declines in corn and feed. Year-over-year, export prices climbed 2.2%, with figures excluding foreign tariffs though reflecting market adjustments.

New York Manufacturing Activity Hits 9-Month High

The Empire State Manufacturing Index surged to 11.9 in August, its strongest level since November 2024, far exceeding expectations. New orders and shipments rose sharply, while delivery times lengthened and inventories contracted. Employment ticked up slightly, and price pressures persisted with elevated input costs and softer selling prices. Despite the current strength, optimism for future business conditions eased compared to July.

U.S. Import Prices Post Sharpest Gain in Over a Year

Import prices rose 0.4% in July, the biggest increase since April last year, defying expectations for no change and rebounding from June’s slight decline. The rise was driven by a 2.7% jump in fuel costs and modest gains in non-fuel imports, while prices remained 0.2% lower year-over-year.

Bonds Commentary:  The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hovered near 4.3% as strong retail sales and a sharp rise in import prices tempered expectations for multiple Fed rate cuts. Recent data, including hotter producer prices, reinforced concerns that tariffs and fiscal spending could keep inflation elevated, despite softer CPI earlier. While a September 25bps cut remains likely, confidence in further cuts has weakened amid reduced demand at Treasury auctions.

Futures Update:  U.S. stock index futures traded mixed as investors weighed hotter-than-expected inflation data and an upcoming meeting between the U.S. and Russia on a possible Ukraine ceasefire. The S&P 500 recently hit another record high, while the Dow and Nasdaq slipped. Stronger producer prices hinted at tariff-driven inflation, reducing expectations for a larger Fed rate cut in September, though a smaller cut remains highly likely. Despite this, positive corporate earnings have supported weekly gains across major indexes.

After an early decline, stocks lacked clear direction throughout Thursday’s trading session. The S&P 500 edged up by 1.94 points, or 0.03%, closing at 6,468.53. From a technical perspective, the index found support at its important moving averages and gradually moved higher, indicating the potential for a short-term upward trend. The 14-day RSI remains above the midpoint, reflecting sustained bullish momentum. Further support is provided by other major moving averages below the current level, with key support around 6,344 and resistance near 6,520.