Global Market Wrap: Cautious Optimism Amid U.S. Shutdown, Easing Geopolitical Tensions, and Mixed Sector Moves

Index Update : U.S. stock futures were little changed on Friday after a muted session and a volatile week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq set for modest weekly gains and the Dow on track to end lower. Caution persisted amid the ongoing federal government shutdown and lack of major economic data, as investors awaited Michigan consumer sentiment figures and the upcoming earnings season. In corporate news, Qualcomm slipped after reports of a Chinese antitrust probe, while Intel rose on news of its Panther Lake processors. Among major tech names, Nvidia, Meta, Broadcom, and Tesla posted small gains, while Microsoft and Alphabet were steady and Apple and Amazon edged slightly lower.

Market Movers : On Thursday, the top gainers were New Era Energy & Digital, Inc. (+83.77%), followed by Bluejay Diagnostics, Inc. (+75.40%). On the contrary Kandal M Venture Limited (-44.63%), and Kalaris Therapeutics, Inc. (-29.82%) declined the most the same day.

Commodities Update : Oil and gold prices retreated slightly on Friday amid easing geopolitical tensions and shifting investor sentiment. WTI fell toward $61 and Brent slipped below $65 per barrel after Israel and Hamas agreed to the first phase of a ceasefire, reducing Middle East risk premiums. Despite the pullback, crude remained on track for a weekly gain, supported by new U.S. sanctions on Iran’s energy network and restrained OPEC+ output increases. Meanwhile, spot gold hovered just below $4,000 after hitting a record $4,059, up 52% year-to-date and set for an eighth consecutive weekly rise, fueled by geopolitical uncertainty, rate-cut expectations, and diversification away from the dollar. Broader market sentiment was tempered by the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and political instability in France.

Macro Updates : U.S. Expands Sanctions on Iran’s Oil Network as China Retaliates with Countermeasures

The U.S. imposed sanctions on around 100 individuals, entities, and vessels linked to Iran’s oil and petrochemical trade, targeting China’s Shandong Jincheng Petrochemical Group and Rizhao Shihua Crude Oil Terminal for handling sanctioned Iranian crude. The move came alongside an Israel–Hamas ceasefire announcement. In response, China added several U.S. firms, including Dedrone by Axon and TechInsights, to its unreliable entities list, calling the action a lawful defense of national sovereignty and security.

Trump Anticipates China’s Return to U.S. Soybean Purchases Amid Trade Truce

President Donald Trump expressed confidence that China would soon resume buying U.S. soybeans after his planned meeting with President Xi Jinping, despite lingering trade tensions. He pledged to urge Xi to end the import halt, while Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said the farmer relief package would be delayed until the government reopens. Though a trade truce remains in place, China continues sourcing soybeans from Brazil and Argentina, which Trump characterized as a negotiating tactic.

Bonds Commentary : The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield held near 4.14% on Friday, ending the week largely unchanged as investors assessed the impact of the nine-day government shutdown and the Federal Reserve’s next policy steps. The shutdown’s continuation has delayed key economic data, adding uncertainty to rate decisions. NY Fed President John Williams signaled openness to another rate cut, though inflation concerns remain a hurdle. Markets currently price in a 95% chance of a rate cut this month and an 80% chance in December, while demand weakened at the latest 10-year Treasury auction.

Futures Update : U.S. stock futures edged slightly higher on Friday, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 each up about 0.1%, as investors awaited fresh consumer sentiment data and monitored sustained enthusiasm around artificial intelligence. This followed Thursday’s decline on Wall Street, driven by concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown and growing caution about the speculative nature of AI-related investments, though optimism around the sector’s growth continues to support market sentiment