Futures Steady, Commodities Retreat as Investors Focus on U.S. Data and Geopolitical Developments

Index Update:  S&P 500 and Dow futures edged higher to extend record highs, while Nasdaq 100 futures were slightly lower. Tech stocks were mixed, though chipmakers continued to gain on signs of strong demand and tight supply from Asia despite some doubts about AI spending. Refinery-linked stocks like Valero, Marathon Petroleum, Phillips 66, and Chevron traded higher after President Trump said the U.S. secured initial crude exports from Venezuela, boosting prospects for Gulf Coast processors of heavy crude.

Market Movers:  On Tuesday, the top gainers were Alumis Inc. (+95.31%), followed by Autozi Internet Technology (Global) Ltd. (+70.83%). On the contrary, Instil Bio, Inc. (-45.81%), and Hang Feng Technology Innovation Co., Ltd. (-28.62%) declined the most the same day.

Commodities Update:  Oil prices fell over 1% on Wednesday, with WTI nearing $56 and Brent around $60, after President Trump said Venezuela would deliver 30–50 million barrels of crude to the U.S., boosting expected supply. The deal may divert shipments from China, while easing concerns over restrictions on Russian exports also pressured prices. This overshadowed API data showing a 2.8 million-barrel decline in U.S. crude inventories, versus expectations for a build. Gold slid to around $4,440 per ounce, silver fell below $80, and copper retreated toward $5.9 per pound on Wednesday as investors took profits after recent gains and the dollar strengthened ahead of key U.S. economic data that could influence Federal Reserve policy. While expectations for possible rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions — including U.S. actions in Venezuela and rising Asia-Pacific frictions — continued to provide some safe-haven support, metals broadly eased from highs as markets shifted focus to the upcoming U.S. jobs report and policy outlook.

Macro Updates:  U.S. mortgage applications rose a modest 0.3% in the week ending January 2, as a jump in refinancing activity offset a sharp drop in home purchase applications, which remain near five-month lows despite mortgage rates falling to a 15-month low of 6.25%. Overall applications are still down 9.7% over the past two weeks, reflecting weak housing demand even as borrowing costs ease.

Bonds Commentary:  The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was steady around 4.17%, just below last week’s four-month high, as investors weighed Venezuela-related geopolitical risks and upcoming U.S. economic data. Recent indicators signaled slowing economic momentum, and Fed officials stressed careful policy decisions ahead, with markets still expecting two rate cuts this year.

Futures Update:  U.S. stock futures were mostly flat on Wednesday as investors looked ahead to economic data, with Dow futures steady while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures edged down 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively.

Following a strong performance to kick off the first full trading week of the new year, stocks continued their upward trajectory on Tuesday. The rally pushed the Dow and the S&P 500 to new record closing highs. The S&P 500 gained 42.79 points, or 0.62%, closing at 6,944.83. From a technical perspective, the index is holding above its key support zone and has continued to move higher. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains near the midpoint, suggesting that buying momentum could pick up soon. The crucial support level is around 6,877—an important threshold that may trigger a rebound—while resistance is likely near 6,990