Equities Extend Gains, Commodities Under Pressure, and Shutdown Weighs on Data Outlook

Image Source : Krish Capital Pty Ltd

Index Update:  The S&P 500 rose 0.34% on Wednesday, while the Dow gained 0.09% and the Nasdaq added 0.42%, as investors brushed off weaker private payrolls data showing a 32,000 job decline in September. The Labor Department confirmed the September nonfarm payrolls report will be delayed due to the government shutdown, which remains stalled over Democrats’ push to link funding to extended health care tax credits. In corporate news, pharmaceutical stocks including Pfizer, Biogen, and Merck advanced in after-hours trading after the Trump administration announced a drug pricing deal with Pfizer under its “most-favored-nation” initiative.

Market Movers:  On Wednesday, the top gainers were Toro Corp. (+33.76%), followed by Angel Studios, Inc. (+33.56%). On the contrary Reitar Logtech Holdings Limited (-57.24%), and Safe & Green Holdings Corp. (-46.03%) declined the most the same day.

Commodities Update:  WTI and Brent crude futures inched higher on Thursday, trading near $62 and $65 per barrel respectively, but remained close to four-month lows. Prices were pressured by concerns over rising OPEC+ supply, growing U.S. crude inventories, and weakening demand signals, including a drop in gasoline consumption to a six-month low and soft Asian factory activity. The upcoming OPEC+ meeting added to uncertainty, with speculation of increased output despite denials from the group.

Gold held near a record high of about $3,860 per ounce, supported by expectations of Fed rate cuts and strong safe-haven demand amid U.S. political and economic uncertainty. A weak ADP jobs report and the government shutdown, which delayed the September payrolls release, reinforced bets on further easing. Meanwhile, a Supreme Court ruling on Fed Governor Lisa Cook helped ease concerns about the central bank’s independence.

Macro Updates:  U.S. Seeks Equity Stakes in Australian Critical Minerals Firms Amid China Supply Risks

The U.S. government is considering buying equity in Australian critical minerals companies to strengthen supply chains and reduce dependence on China, which recently restricted exports of rare earths and permanent magnets in retaliation to U.S. tariffs. Critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, and rare earths are essential for clean energy, semiconductors, and defense technologies. Meanwhile, China and Malaysia have begun early talks on a rare earths processing venture involving Khazanah Nasional and a Chinese state-owned firm, signaling a potential shift in China’s long-standing strategy of keeping its processing technology domestic.

USDA Halts Data Releases Amid Government Shutdown

The USDA confirmed it will suspend all new reports and data releases during the government shutdown, blaming Democrats for the budget stalemate. Most employees will be furloughed under the agency’s contingency plan, delaying key publications such as the weekly export sales report and the October WASDE report.

Bonds Commentary:  The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield held near 4.1% on Thursday after the Supreme Court set a January hearing on President Trump’s effort to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook, easing concerns over central bank stability. Yields also faced pressure from the government shutdown, which will delay key economic data, including the September payrolls report. Meanwhile, ADP reported an unexpected loss of 32,000 private-sector jobs in September, against expectations of a gain, citing adjustments tied to the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.

Futures Update:  U.S. stock index futures held steady Wednesday evening after Wall Street logged a fourth straight gain, supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in late October. Weak labor and PMI data failed to curb the rally, though investor sentiment stayed cautious due to uncertainty over the duration of the government shutdown. By 19:16 ET, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones futures were all flat.

Stocks faced early pressure during Wednesday's session but experienced a notable turnaround as the trading day progressed. The S&P 500 rose by 22.72 points, or 0.32%, closing at 6,711.19. From a technical standpoint, the index held support at important levels and maintained a steady upward trajectory, indicating the possibility of further gains in the near future. Moreover, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trending higher, supporting a bullish outlook. Key support levels are around 6,595, with resistance expected near 6,777.