Earnings Surge, Fed Watch, and Heightened Volatility Drive Cautious Sentiment

Index Update:  Markets face a packed week ahead, with over 90 S&P 500 firms — including Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Tesla and IBM — reporting earnings, while the Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady and signal the outlook for future cuts. Investors will also track key U.S. economic data, as recent tariff threats from President Trump toward Europe briefly heightened market volatility. U.S. stocks finished mixed on Friday, with modest gains in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq supported by strength in Nvidia and AMD, while the Dow fell as financials and utilities lagged. Intel’s sharp drop after a weak outlook weighed on semiconductor sentiment, and mixed economic data reinforced cautious market tone, leaving weekly performance largely flat to lower.

Market Movers:  On Friday, the top gainers were Movano Inc. (+140.17%), followed Brand Engagement Network Inc (+90.30%). On the contrary, Namib Minerals. (-25.30%), and BitGo Holdings, Inc. (-21.58%) declined the most the same day.

Commodities Update:  WTI crude slipped below $61 a barrel and Brent fell under $66 on Monday, retreating from earlier gains as markets balanced geopolitical risks, trade tensions, and supply developments. Middle East tensions and a U.S. winter storm supported prices, but expectations of normalized Kazakh oil exports and limited progress in Russia-Ukraine talks weighed on sentiment. Gold climbed over 1% to a fresh record near $5,080 an ounce, driven by strong safe-haven demand amid trade tensions, geopolitical risks, and expectations the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged. Silver surged more than 5% to all-time highs above $108 an ounce, supported by investor demand, tight physical supply, rising retail buying in China and India, and growing bets on future U.S. rate cuts — reinforcing a broad rally in precious metals.

Macro Updates:  The dollar index fell toward 97, hitting a four-month low as it declined for a third straight session, led by sharp losses against the yen amid speculation of possible U.S.–Japan currency intervention. The greenback was further pressured by rising geopolitical and trade tensions, expectations of a more dovish Fed leadership under Trump, and anticipation of this week’s Federal Reserve meeting for clues on future rate cuts.

Bonds Commentary:  The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield slipped to about 4.22%, a one-week low, as investors positioned ahead of the Fed’s policy meeting, where rates are expected to stay unchanged and markets look for clues on future cuts. Attention is also on Trump’s potential replacement for Fed Chair Powell, upcoming U.S. economic data, and ongoing trade tensions with Canada and China, all contributing to market uncertainty.

Futures Update:  U.S. stock futures traded slightly below breakeven on Monday as markets prepared for a pivotal week marked by a Federal Reserve rate decision and a wave of corporate earnings reports. Dow futures were flat, while S&P 500 futures edged lower by 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.1%.

Following a sharp upward move over the previous two sessions, major US stock indexes exhibited mixed performance during Friday's trading. The Dow declined, giving back some of its gains, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ advanced further, closing higher for the third consecutive day. The S&P 500 edged up by 2.26 points, or 0.03%, to finish at 6,915.62. From a technical standpoint, the index may encounter choppy trading in the short term as prices remain near an immediate resistance zone, with a slight bearish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near the midpoint, indicating ongoing indecision at current levels. Key support is identified around 6,820—a crucial level that could prompt a rebound—while resistance is anticipated near 6,970.