Daily U.S. Markets Snapshot: Risk-Off Sentiment Deepens Across Equities, Commodities, and Bonds

Index Update:  U.S. stock futures fell Friday, extending Thursday’s steep decline—Wall Street’s worst session since early October. Tech remained under pressure as worries about overstretched AI valuations and reduced expectations for a December Fed rate cut weighed on sentiment, with odds of a cut slipping below 50%. Major tech names traded lower pre-market, including Nvidia, Tesla, and Applied Materials after weak earnings. For the week, the S&P 500 is up slightly, the Dow has risen 1%, while the Nasdaq is down 0.6%.

Market Movers:  On Thursday, the top gainers were Mersana Therapeutics, Inc. (+209.24%), followed by Intellicheck, Inc. (+37.95%). On the contrary Korro Bio, Inc. (-79.31%), and Ardent Health, Inc. (-33.81%) declined the most the same day.

Commodities Update:  WTI and Brent crude futures rose over 1% and moved toward $60 and $64 per barrel, respectively, poised to break a two-week losing streak as geopolitical tensions and Russian supply disruptions lifted prices. However, gains were tempered by bearish signals from the IEA and OPEC, including expectations of a growing global oil surplus and rising U.S. output. Gold hovered near $4,165 per ounce, set for a 4% weekly gain, supported by safe-haven demand amid uncertainty over delayed U.S. economic data and reduced odds of a December Fed rate cut.

Macro Updates:  The U.S. announced plans to remove tariffs on select food and other imports from Argentina, Ecuador, Guatemala, and El Salvador under new framework agreements aimed at improving market access for American companies. The move is expected to lower prices on items like coffee and bananas, with officials saying retailers should pass savings on to consumers. Most agreements are set to be finalized within two weeks, with more possible by year-end, while broader tariff rates of 10% for three countries and 15% for Ecuador will remain in place.

Bonds Commentary:  The US 10-year Treasury yield stayed above 4.1% after Thursday’s jump, as investors sharply reduced expectations for a December Fed rate cut—now seen as only a 50% probability versus over 95% a month ago. Uncertainty around inflation, mixed Fed views, and disruptions to economic data from the recent government shutdown added to caution. The backlog of delayed reports and worries about a potential slowdown further pressured sentiment, with the Treasury selloff occurring alongside declines in US stocks and the dollar.

Futures Update:  U.S. stock futures extended Thursday’s sharp selloff as reduced expectations for a December rate cut and continued rotation out of tech weighed on sentiment. Futures for the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq slipped modestly after major indexes posted their worst day in over a month. Markets lost momentum from the brief optimism following the end of the government shutdown, with concerns rising over high tech valuations and the possibility of the Fed holding rates steady. The Dow fell nearly 800 points, the S&P 500 dropped 1.7%, and the Nasdaq slid 2.3%, threatening its seven-week winning streak.

After experiencing a sharp decline early in the session, stocks continued to fall throughout Thursday's trading day. The S&P 500 dropped by 113.45 points, or 1.66%, closing at 6,737.48. From a technical perspective, the index is trading near a significant resistance zone, hinting at possible consolidation with a bearish tendency. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above the midpoint, signaling some sideways momentum. Key support levels are around 6,666, with resistance expected near 6,810.