Key Index Moves, Commodities Trends, Macro Highlights, and Futures Outlook

Index Update:  U.S. stocks pared sharp early losses on Friday, ending mostly flat to slightly lower as investors rotated back into major tech names while trimming defensive positions. Nvidia, Microsoft, Oracle, and Palantir rebounded, but the Dow still fell 280 points amid uneven market breadth. Concerns over stretched AI valuations, higher funding needs, and fading expectations for a December Fed rate cut continued to weigh on sentiment. Although the government shutdown ended, delayed data releases left traders without clear guidance, adding to year-end volatility.

Market Movers:  On Friday, the top gainers were Cidara Therapeutics, Inc. (+105.41%), followed by Cypherpunk Technologies Inc. (+56.25%). On the contrary OneConstruction Group Limited (-49.90%), and TSS, Inc. (-43.34%) declined the most the same day.

Commodities Update:  WTI and Brent crude prices slipped as Russia’s Novorossiysk port resumed operations after a brief shutdown from a Ukrainian drone strike, easing supply concerns that had lifted prices last week. Despite U.S. political moves toward broader sanctions on countries trading with Russia—and potentially Iran—the broader oil outlook remains bearish due to expectations of a supply glut amid rising output and slowing demand. Gold held near $4,080 per ounce as markets awaited a backlog of key U.S. economic data, including the September jobs report and Fed minutes. Rate-cut expectations for December have cooled, though gold remains up 55% this year, supported by strong central bank buying and demand for safety.

Macro Updates:  Investors now look to a revised U.S. data calendar and key private indicators, while Nvidia’s earnings and major retailers’ results will offer insights into AI sentiment and consumer strength. Upcoming Fed and RBA minutes, global flash PMIs, and economic releases from Japan and several other countries will further guide the week’s macro outlook.

Bonds Commentary:  The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield steadied near 4.15% as markets reduced expectations for a December Fed rate cut following increasingly cautious remarks from Fed officials. The implied probability of a 25 bps cut has fallen to about 46% from nearly 88% a month ago. Investors now await a backlog of key U.S. economic data delayed by the government shutdown, including Thursday’s September jobs report, along with private-sector indicators such as PMIs, home sales data, the NAHB index, and ADP employment figures.

Futures Update:  U.S. stock futures pointed higher on Monday, supported by optimism over fresh economic data and Nvidia’s upcoming earnings. Futures for the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 were up 0.2%, 0.6%, and 0.9% respectively. Sentiment improved after President Trump signaled a softer stance on tariffs, announcing reduced levies on several food items to address affordability concerns. Additionally, the U.S. reached a deal with Switzerland to cut duties on Swiss exports to 15% from 39% in return for a $200 billion U.S. investment by 2028.

Following the selloff observed on Thursday, stocks experienced a further decline during early trading on Friday. However, there was a notable recovery attempt as the day progressed. The S&P 500 decreased by 3.38 points, or 0.05%, closing at 6,734.10. From a technical perspective, the index found support at critical levels and gradually moved higher, indicating the potential for additional gains in the near future. Moreover, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounded from the mid-point and is trending upward, signaling renewed buying momentum. Key support levels are around 6,700, with resistance expected near 6,880.