Daily Market Brief: U.S. Budget Standoff, Tariff Plans, Commodity Swings, and Futures Outlook

                                                   Source: Krish Capital Pty Ltd

Index Update

Focus remains on U.S. budget talks, with President Trump meeting congressional leaders today to avert a government shutdown set to begin midweek without a funding deal. Premarket trading showed most megacaps higher—Amazon (+1.2%), Alphabet (+1.1%), Nvidia (+0.7%), Meta (+0.8%), Microsoft (+0.3%), and Broadcom (+0.9%)—while Apple dipped 0.2%. For September, the S&P 500 is up 2.8%, Dow 1.5%, and Nasdaq 2.9%.

Market Movers

On Friday, the top gainers were bioAffinity Technologies, Inc. (+55.13%), followed by Hang Feng Technology Innovation Co., Ltd. (+51.26%). On the contrary Bollinger Innovations, Inc. (-36.19%), and Universal Safety Products, Inc. (-33.18%) declined the most the same day.

Commodities Update

WTI crude fell below $65 and Brent dropped under $70 per barrel on Monday after Iraq’s Kurdistan region resumed crude exports following a 2.5-year halt, adding 180,000–190,000 bpd initially, with potential to rise to 230,000 bpd. The move, combined with OPEC+ plans to raise output by at least 137,000 bpd in November, fueled oversupply concerns despite last week’s 5% rally driven by disruptions to Russian exports.

Gold surged above $3,800 an ounce for the first time, supported by a weaker dollar and expectations of U.S. rate cuts, with markets pricing a 90% chance of an October cut and 65% odds of another in December. Investors await key U.S. economic data this week, while trade risks loom after new tariffs on drugs, trucks, and furniture were announced to take effect October 1.

Macro Updates

Trump Meets Congressional Leaders in Last-Ditch Effort to Avert Shutdown

President Trump will meet top congressional leaders Monday as federal funding is set to expire Tuesday night, risking a government shutdown. The standoff reflects deep partisan divides, with Democrats pushing to protect social program funding and Republicans demanding steeper spending cuts. A shutdown would halt government operations, delay federal pay, and unsettle global markets.

U.S. Weighs Tariffs on Electronics Based on Chip Content

The Trump administration is considering tariffs on foreign electronic devices tied to their chip value to boost domestic manufacturing. The plan, part of a broader economic strategy, could impact many consumer goods and worsen inflation. Recent 100% drug and 25% truck tariffs set precedent, though exemptions for U.S.-based manufacturing remain unclear.

Bonds Commentary

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield eased to 4.16% as shutdown risks weighed on sentiment and investors awaited key economic data, including September’s jobs report and PMI readings. While President Trump meets lawmakers to avert a midweek shutdown, last week’s strong U.S. data has tempered Fed rate-cut expectations, with markets now pricing only about 40 bps of easing by year-end.

Futures Update

U.S. stock futures rose Monday, with Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 up 0.4%, 0.5%, and 0.6%, respectively, as investors awaited a key jobs report and monitored the potential government shutdown. The prior session ended higher on in-line inflation data, though all three major indices posted weekly losses, breaking recent winning streaks.