Daily Market Brief: Key Movers, Macro Signals, and Fed Watch

Index Update:  Nvidia gained over 2% after hours after Trump said Nvidia’s H2200 chip sales to China and others would require approval and send 25% of proceeds to the U.S. government. Markets are also focused on the Fed’s meeting, where a 25 bps cut is expected but future easing may be cautious. During Monday’s trading, the Dow dropped 0.45%, the S&P 500 eased 0.35%, and the Nasdaq Composite edged down 0.14%, with technology standing out as the lone advancing sector while the other ten finished in negative territory.

Market Movers:  On Monday, the top gainers were Top Wealth Group Holding Limited (+266.22%), followed by Orangekloud Technology Inc. (+147.63%). On the contrary, SMX (Security Matters) Public Limited Company (-59.09%), and BiomX Inc. (-36.94%) declined the most the same day.

Commodities Update:  Oil prices slipped, with WTI near USD 59 and Brent around USD 62, as supply-glut concerns—including restored Iraqi output and surplus forecasts from the IEA and OPEC+—offset geopolitical risks. Gold edged up toward USD 4,200 on expectations of a Fed rate cut, with investors watching for a potentially “hawkish cut” and updated economic projections. Silver held above USD 58 near record levels, supported by tight physical markets, strong industrial demand, and expectations of further deficits, even as central banks prepare for policy decisions this week.

Macro Updates:  US small business optimism improved in November, with the NFIB index rising to 99 and beating expectations, helped by better sales outlook and more firms planning job creation. Concerns about labor quality eased but remained the top issue, while more owners raised prices. However, expectations for overall business conditions weakened despite the pickup in sentiment.

Bonds Commentary:  The 10-year Treasury yield held near 4.16% as markets awaited the JOLTS report, ADP data, and the Fed meeting, where a 25 bps cut is expected but future guidance will be key. Investors will watch the dot plot amid expectations of only modest easing in 2026, while political uncertainty around Trump’s prospective Fed Chair is also adding caution.

Futures Update:  U.S. stock futures were slightly higher early Tuesday, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 each up around 0.1%, as investors waited for this week’s key Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Major indexes fell in the previous session amid rising Treasury yields, suggesting a cautious tone ahead of Wednesday’s Fed announcement.

Stocks initially moved higher at the start of trading on Monday but gradually declined throughout the session. The major averages retreated from their early peaks into negative territory. The S&P 500 fell by 23.89 points, or 0.35%, closing at 6,846.50. From a technical perspective, the index held support at important levels and steadily edged higher. It remains above its key moving averages, indicating a bullish trend. However, due to relatively low participation at current levels, there is a slight possibility of a mild correction in the near future. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above the midpoint, supporting a positive outlook. Key support levels are around 6,730, with resistance expected near 6,955.