AI-Driven Rally Lifts Futures as Investors Eye Jobs Data and Fed Uncertainty

Index Update:  U.S. stock futures jumped on Thursday after Nvidia’s strong earnings and bullish outlook boosted confidence in the AI sector. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 1.8%, with the S&P 500 and Dow up 1.3% and 0.6%. Nvidia surged over 5% after projecting robust Q4 sales, lifting other AI-related stocks including AMD, Micron, Broadcom, and Palantir. On Wednesday, major indexes posted modest gains, and investors now look to the delayed September jobs report for labor market insights.

Market Movers:  On Wednesday, the top gainers were WeShop Holdings Limited (+506.06%), followed by Safe & Green Holdings Corp. (+78.01%). On the contrary Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (-50.89%), and Tempest Therapeutics, Inc. (-48.59%) declined the most the same day.

Commodities Update:  WTI and Brent crude prices inched higher after a sharp drop, as markets weighed upcoming U.S. sanctions on major Russian oil firms against prospects of renewed diplomacy in the Ukraine conflict, which could boost Russian supply and worsen oversupply concerns. Mixed U.S. inventory data—lower crude stocks but rising fuel inventories—also capped gains. Meanwhile, gold prices slipped after two days of gains as expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts weakened, with traders awaiting delayed U.S. jobs data. Improved equity-market sentiment further reduced gold’s safe-haven demand.

Macro Updates:

Expected September Jobs Rebound Amid Data Disruptions from Historic U.S. Government Shutdown

U.S. nonfarm payrolls for September are expected to rise by 50K, up from 22K in August, signaling a still-soft but stabilizing labor market, with unemployment seen holding at 4.3% and wage growth steady at 0.3% monthly and 4.7% annually. The report was delayed due to the historic federal shutdown, while the October employment report has been cancelled because the household survey data could not be collected or recreated during the shutdown period.

Fed Minutes Reveal Deep Divisions Over December Rate Decision

FOMC minutes showed significant disagreement among policymakers on whether to cut rates again in December. While most members saw scope for additional easing, several argued that another 25 bps cut may not be appropriate, and many favored holding rates steady through year-end. Some officials said a December cut could be justified if economic conditions unfold as expected. The Fed previously lowered the federal funds rate by 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00% at its October 2025 meeting.

Bonds Commentary:  The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stayed above 4.1% as markets grew more confident that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady next month. FOMC minutes showed policymakers increasingly divided, with some members arguing that persistent inflation supports keeping rates unchanged. Expectations of a pause strengthened further after the BLS confirmed that November jobs data will be released only after the FOMC meeting. Initial jobless claims signaled stable labor conditions, while private surveys pointed to stickier inflation, reinforcing the hawkish stance.

Futures Update:  U.S. stock futures climbed strongly on Thursday after upbeat earnings and guidance from Nvidia eased worries about high market valuations. Dow futures were up 0.6%, S&P 500 futures gained 1.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 1.4%. Major indexes had already rebounded on Wednesday after a four-day decline, though they remain on track for a down week due to the earlier sell-off.

After initially rallying to sustain momentum, stocks experienced fluctuations throughout Wednesday's trading session before ultimately closing mostly higher. The S&P 500 declined by 24.82 points, or 0.38%, finishing the day at 6,642.15. From a technical perspective, the index found support at key levels and rallied higher in the previous session, indicating the potential for an upward move in the near term. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the midpoint, suggesting some downside risk. Key support levels are around 6,555, while resistance is expected near 6,780.