Key Highlights

● Tesla closed at $354.72 on October 16, trading below the analyst target.

● The consensus 12-month price target is $397.83, implying about 12.15% upside.

● Analysts are split 19 Buy, 21 Hold, and 4 Sell on the stock.

● Targets range from $128.11 to $600 across 44 analysts.

Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) closed at $354.72 on October 16, 2026 on the Nasdaq and is a constituent of the S&P 500. The average analyst price target is $397.83, which implies 12.15% upside from the latest close if the consensus proves accurate. Third-quarter results are due on 21 October, and analysts are split sharply on the shares, with targets ranging from $128.11 to $600.

What Is the Latest Analyst Price Target?

According to market data, the average price target for TSLA is $397.83, with a median of $412.50. The highest target is $600 and the lowest is $128.11, drawn from 44 analysts. The consensus rating is Buy. Price targets are forecasts, not guarantees, and the consensus target suggests where analysts think the shares could trade over roughly the next twelve months rather than where they will go. The consensus data is dated October 16, 2026.

What Are Analysts Saying?

The rating split is 19 Buy (15 Strong Buy, 4 Buy), 21 Hold, 4 Sell (2 Sell, 2 Strong Sell). Tesla is one of the most divided stocks: 21 of 44 analysts rate it Hold, 19 Buy and four Sell. The median target of $412.50 is above the average of $397.83, and the extremely wide range reflects very different assumptions about autonomy, robotaxi and energy businesses.

J.P. Morgan maintained Hold at $415 and Morgan Stanley maintained Hold at $400 on October 16, 2026. Barclays maintained Hold at $370 on 15 October, Jefferies maintained Hold and raised its target from $350 to $400 on 12 October, and RBC Capital maintained Buy at $480 the same day.

What Could Help the Stock Reach the Price Target?

According to market data, third-quarter deliveries beat expectations but fell about 2% year on year. Full-year 2025 revenue was $94.83 billion, down 2.93%, with earnings of $3.79 billion, down 46.79%. Trailing-twelve-month revenue is $103.62 billion, up 11.8%, and EPS $1.08.

Better-than-expected deliveries, a recovery in earnings and progress in newer business lines could lift estimates and support the higher targets such as RBC's $480.

What Could Prevent the Stock Reaching the Target?

Earnings have fallen sharply, deliveries are still lower year on year and many analysts rate the stock Hold. The shares are highly volatile and sensitive to sentiment, and the $128.11 low target illustrates the downside case. Consensus targets can also be revised downwards quickly, and broader market conditions, interest rates and sector sentiment may affect the shares regardless of company performance.

What Should Investors Watch Next?

Tesla is expected to report on October 21, 2026, with attention on margins, deliveries outlook and updates on autonomous driving. Investors may also watch for further target revisions, changes in rating and any updates to company guidance, since these tend to move the consensus figures.

A Steady Hand on Upside

With TSLA at $354.72 and an average target of $397.83, the consensus target suggests 12.15% upside, within a range of $128.11 to $600.