Key Highlights

● December CBOT soybean meal closed at $347.50 per short ton on October 2, 2026, down $5.80, or 1.64%.

● The weekly loss was about $23.50, or 6.3%, as soybean harvesting was only 17% complete on September 27.

● August soybean cake and meal stocks rose to 452,530 tons from 366,931 tons in July, adding to supply.

● Inghams guided to an AUD 40 to 50 million feed headwind in fiscal 2027 after an AUD 82.3 million benefit.

December CBOT soybean meal closed at $347.50 per short ton on Friday, October 2, 2026, down $5.80, or 1.64%, from Thursday’s $353.30. The quote is for the active December 2026 contract, so the move is not distorted by a roll. Archer-Daniels-Midland (NYSE:ADM), a large processor of soybeans and corn that sells meal as a co-product of soybean oil, is the main US-listed crusher exposed to the price.

A Weekly Loss of 6.3% Leaves Meal Under Pressure

Meal closed at $356.90 on Wednesday, September 30, and $353.30 on Thursday before Friday’s drop. Over the week, the loss was about $23.50 a ton, or 6.3%. Market commentary described the decline as part of broader weakness in the oilseed complex, with November soybeans down 5.75 cents on Friday while soybean oil gained. One short ton is 2,000 lb, and the CBOT contract covers 100 short tons.

Harvest, Stocks and Crush Add Weight

Several pressures are best treated as contributing factors. First, harvest: soybean harvesting was only 17% complete on September 27, so large volumes are still to reach the market. Second, stocks: USDA put soybean stocks at 315 million bushels, below the 323 million bushel survey average, which would normally be supportive, while August soybean cake and meal stocks rose to 452,530 tons from 366,931 tons in July.

Third, crush. August processing was about 210 million bushels, down from 222 million in July but above 198 million a year earlier. Crushing produces meal as a co-product of oil, so strong crushing for the oil can leave meal in ample supply. Fourth, China: market commentary said a recommended Chinese import list included soybean seed but left out ordinary commercial soybeans, which limits the benefit for the main export market.

Crushers, Chicken Producers and Feed Buyers Abroad

Meal is not the whole soybean. Soybean oil rose on the day meal fell, and Bunge’s July results were helped by soybean oil prices that climbed after crude oil spiked. A lower meal price therefore does not automatically mean weaker crush profits, since the outcome depends on how oil, beans and meal move together.

In the second quarter the company’s crushing operating profit climbed about $330 million sequentially to $363 million, helped by domestic biofuel demand and elevated global energy prices. It raised 2026 adjusted earnings guidance to $5.15 to $5.60 a share. Bunge (NYSE:BG) posted second-quarter adjusted earnings of $2.00 a share on July 29 and raised its 2026 outlook to $9.25 to $9.75 on strong crush margins, though it said grain merchandising and milling were weaker than expected. Those results pre-date the October fall in meal.

Tyson Foods (NYSE:TSN) sits on the buying side. Its chicken segment earned $488 million in operating income in the quarter reported on August 3, up from $448 million a year earlier. Cheaper meal would lower feed costs for poultry and hog producers, with the benefit set by contracts, hedging and purchase timing.

Inghams Group of Australia reported an AUD 82.3 million feed cost benefit for fiscal 2026 on August 21, but guided to an AUD 40 to 50 million feed headwind in fiscal 2027 on rising Australian wheat and soymeal prices, which it described as volatile. Australian feed is priced locally, so exchange rates, freight and basis matter as well as the CBOT price. Maple Leaf Foods of Canada is a weaker fit, since it now buys pork rather than raising hogs.

Meal Watch List for the Coming Weeks

Meal could rise on a slower harvest, weaker yields than expected, or firmer Chinese demand if trade conditions change. It could fall on faster harvest progress, rising meal stocks, continued trade friction and a stronger dollar, which makes dollar-priced meal costlier for non-US buyers. Prices can reverse quickly, and a single week’s decline is not a trend.

The USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report is scheduled for October 9, 2026, normally at 12:00 pm US Eastern time. Weekly USDA crop progress and export sales reports, and monthly crush data from a US industry group, will show harvest pace and processing volumes. Chinese import policy, soybean oil and crude oil prices that drive crush economics, and updates from processors and poultry producers complete the list.