Key Highlights

● Frozen concentrated orange juice futures closed at 135.20 cents per pound on October 2, 2026, down 6.50 cents, or 4.59%.

● Industry data forecast Brazil’s 2026/27 orange crop at 255.2 million boxes, down 12.9% from the previous season’s harvest.

● Brazilian juice shipments rose 1.74% in volume from July 2025 to April 2026 while revenue fell 27.4%.

● Lassonde said adjusted EBITDA rose 19.3% to C$100.7 million in the second quarter as orange concentrate costs moderated.

Frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ-A) futures on ICE Futures US closed at 135.20 US cents per pound on Friday, October 2, 2026, down 6.50 cents, or 4.59%, from about 141.70. The slide came even as Brazil’s crop is forecast to shrink. Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO), a large buyer of juice through brands such as Simply and Minute Maid, grew its juice category in the second quarter.

A Steep Fall From the All-Time High

Each contract covers 15,000 pounds, and the November 2026 contract carried the same 135.20 level as the previous close. The yearly change is roughly minus 42%, with the all-time high set in June 2025, so the market is working off very high prices. The weakness is not a fresh supply scare. It is the opposite.

Different price feeds quote the market at slightly different levels, and an undated quote of 137.60 cents also circulated, so the Friday close serves as the reference. Contract rolls can create apparent gaps, and comparisons should use the same delivery month.

Brazil Harvests Fewer Boxes While Buyers Hold Back

Brazil is the world’s largest orange juice producer, so its crop is the clearest supply fact. Industry data forecast the 2026/27 harvest in the São Paulo and Minas Gerais citrus belt at 255.2 million boxes of 40.8 kg. That is 12.9% below the 2025/26 crop of 292.94 million boxes and 14.6% below the ten-year average.

The forecast cites a drought in May 2025, temperatures about 2 degrees Celsius above normal in September, a December 2025 heat wave, and worse greening disease and citrus leprosis. Fruit drop is projected at 23.7%, and fruit per tree is down 17%, partly reflecting the biennial bearing cycle.

A smaller crop would normally lift prices, yet the market has moved lower. Industry reports suggest international pricing depends more on consumer demand in Europe and the United States than on supply alone. Brazilian juice shipments from July 2025 to April 2026 rose 1.74% in volume while revenue fell 27.4%, which points to lower unit prices, not weak volumes. That is an inference, not a proven cause, and positioning data would be needed to say whether the earlier price surge is still being unwound.

Florida Shrinks While Coca-Cola and Lassonde Report

Florida, the other historic production center, is a shrinking contributor. Its citrus area for 2026-27 fell 21% to 66,919 hectares, with oranges covering 58,133 hectares. The 2025-26 harvest produced 12.95 million 90-lb boxes of oranges. These figures show why global prices lean on Brazil, though they do not explain this week’s move.

Coca-Cola is a consumer of juice, not a grower. Its second-quarter release of July 28 said the juice, value-added dairy and plant-based category, which includes Simply and Minute Maid, grew 2%, driven by Asia Pacific and North America. The release did not discuss orange juice costs or hedging, and juice is a small part of a very large beverage portfolio, so any link to FCOJ prices is limited.

Lassonde Industries, the Canadian juice maker, reported second-quarter results on August 7 for the period ended June 27, 2026. Sales were C$737.7 million, gross profit rose C$29.3 million to C$227.6 million, and adjusted EBITDA rose 19.3% to C$100.7 million. Management credited moderating input costs, including a decrease in orange concentrate costs, partly offset by higher PET resin costs and a $5.8 million rise in transport costs. It expects some easing in orange and apple concentrate costs in 2026. Its figures are in Canadian dollars, and hedging detail sits in the full filing.

Crop Updates and Contract Rolls to Track

Prices could firm if Brazil’s crop proves smaller than the industry’s May estimate, since disease or weather could worsen and the forecast already embeds high fruit drop. Florida’s shrinking acreage leaves little buffer, and a recovery in European and North American juice demand as shelf prices ease would help absorb supply.

They could weaken if consumers keep resisting expensive juice, if inventories exceed expectations, or if the crop outcome beats the forecast. After a steep fall over twelve months, the benchmark is exposed to sharp swings in either direction.

Industry updates to the Brazilian crop estimate during the season and USDA Florida citrus forecasts will give fresh supply readings. Lassonde and Coca-Cola commentary on concentrate costs and juice demand in their next reports will show whether cheaper concentrate is reaching margins. Traders will also watch whether the November contract holds near current levels as it approaches expiry.