SPDR Gold Trust 

The Fund seeks to achieve the performance of gold bullion less the expenses of the Fund. The Fund is designed as a cost-effective way for investors to access the gold bullion market. 

Underlying Commodities Analysis 

Gold prices remained steady at approximately USD 2,580 per ounce, close to record highs, amid continued weakness in the US dollar and heightened expectations of a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Market sentiment, as indicated by Fed fund futures, points to a growing anticipation of a 50-basis-point rate reduction, with a 67% probability assigned to this scenario, while a smaller 25-basis-point cut holds a 33% chance, according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool. In contrast, the Bank of England is expected to maintain current interest rates, and the Bank of Japan is likely to hold rates as well but may signal a readiness to increase them should forecasts align with expectations. Additionally, gold's status as a safe-haven asset has been bolstered by increased political uncertainty, following reports of a second assassination attempt on Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. This combination of factors, including monetary policy expectations and geopolitical instability, has reinforced gold's position as a preferred investment for risk-averse investors.  

Technical Observation (on the daily chart of Gold Commodity): 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) over a 14-day period stands at a value of 67.04, currently near overbought zone, with expectations of a consolidation or an upward momentum till the next important resistance levels of USD 2650- USD 2700. Additionally, the stock's current positioning is above both the 50-period EMA and 200-period EMA, which may serve as dynamic short to medium-term support levels.  

As per the above-mentioned price action, recent key business and financial updates, momentum in the stock over the last month, and technical indicators analysis, a ‘WATCH’ rating has been given to SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) at the closing market price of USD 238.66 as of September 16, 2024.  

Individuals can evaluate the stock based on the support and resistance levels provided in the report in case of keen interest taking into consideration the risk-reward scenario.  

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing. 

Related Risk: This report may be looked at from a high-risk perspective and a recommendation is provided for a short duration. This report is solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc.  

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.  

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance level is September 16, 2024. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV. 

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above. 

Note 4: Target Price refers to a price level that the stock is expected to reach as per the relative valuation method and or technical analysis taking into consideration both short-term and long-term scenarios. 

Note 5: ‘Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), NASDAQ Capital Markets (NASDAQ), and or REFINITIV. Typically, all sources (NYSE, NASDAQ, or REFINITIV) may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 15-20 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.