This report is an updated version of the report published on 27 February 2026 at 12:22 PM AEDT.

GQG Partners Inc (ASX: GQG)

GQG Partners Inc (ASX: GQG) is a global boutique asset management firm specializing in the active management of equity portfolios for a diverse client base, including pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, wealth managers, and institutional investors.

Recommendation Rationale – SELL at AUD 1.830

• Overvalued Multiples: On a forward 12-month basis – key trading multiples (EV/Sales, and P/BV) are higher than the median of Financials sector.
• Rising Expenditure: Total operating expenditure rose 2.3% YoY in FY25, primarily driven by higher compensation costs following a 13.2% increase in headcount to 240, along with elevated third-party distribution fees supported by growth in US mutual funds and UCITS FUM. Additionally, IT expenses increased due to greater investment in market research data services.
• Business Risks: Sharp volatility in global equity markets may pressure portfolio valuations, reduce funds under management, and compress management fee income, weighing on revenue stability and overall financial performance. At the same time, evolving cross-border regulatory requirements could elevate compliance costs and necessitate ongoing system upgrades, impacting operational efficiency. Additionally, prolonged underperformance relative to benchmarks may erode investor confidence, drive client redemptions, dampen net inflows, and constrain long-term asset growth and earnings potential.
• Technical Commentary: After rally, GQG’s stock price is approaching significant resistance established by its previous peaks, anticipating a potential correction. Moreover, price is also trading below a long-term downward trendline, providing further support to the previous observation. Price is trading above its previous trough, which could serve as support level for the stock; in contrast, the stock’s next round level may act as sentimental resistance.

GQG Daily Chart

Valuation Methodology: P/BV Approach (FY December'26E) (Illustrative)

Stock might trade at a slight premium to its peers, considering the increased net revenue, growth in net operating income, rising FUM and net inflows, consistent long-term investment performance, product diversification, reinforcing the strength of its scalable and asset-light business model. For the valuation purpose, peers include Netwealth Group Ltd (ASX: NWL), Australian Ethical Investment Ltd (ASX: AEF), Regal Partners Ltd (ASX: RPL), and others have been considered.

Considering that the stock is trading near its R1 level, rising expenditure, macroeconomic uncertainty, current trading level, and risks associated, the stock can face consolidation at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current price of AUD 1.830, at 11:31 AM AEDT, as of 27 February 2026.

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical tensions prevailing. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 27 February 2026. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.    

Note 4: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.

Note 5: Dividend Yield may vary as per the stock price movement.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.