Company Overview: The Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS) is a producer and marketer of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. The Company operates in three segments: Phosphates, Potash and Mosaic Fertilizantes. 

As per our previous US Earning Hunter Report published on ‘MOS’ on 27^th September 2024, Kalkine provided an ‘Attractive’ stance on the stock at USD 26.53, based on “Earning Hunter score and other mentioned fundamentals”.

Current Macro and company specific rationales:

• Impact of U.S. and China Tariffs on Global Trade: S. tariffs, mirrored by China’s 34% tariff on all imports from the United States as announced by the official Xinhua News Agency, have escalated trade tensions, disrupting global supply chains and increasing costs for The Mosaic Company (MOS), a major producer of fertilizers reliant on international markets. This tariff war reduces demand for agricultural inputs in key regions like China, a significant buyer of Mosaic’s products, contributing to potential declines in profitability.
• Fears of a U.S. Recession: Concerns over a potential U.S. recession have lowered expectations for agricultural activity and consumer spending, which directly impacts demand for fertilizers produced by Mosaic. A slowing U.S. economy reduces farmers’ purchasing power and crop planting intentions, posing risks to revenue stability.
• Declining Agricultural Commodity Prices: Falling prices of key agricultural commodities, such as corn and soybeans, driven by global oversupply and reduced demand, are pressuring farmers’ margins and their ability to invest in fertilizers. This trend negatively affects Mosaic’s sales volume and profitability, creating challenges for its financial performance.
• Rising Input Costs and Margin Compression: Mosaic faces increasing costs for raw materials like sulfur and natural gas, exacerbated by global energy market volatility, which squeezes its profit margins. With limited ability to pass these costs onto customers in a competitive market, the company encounters heightened financial strain.

Noted below are the details of support and resistance levels provided in our previous report:

MOS’s Daily Chart 

Considering the current trading levels, volatile macro environment, tariffs increased both by US and China, breaking of key important support of USD 24.00- USD 25.00, and risks associated, an ‘unattractive’ rating is assigned to the “MOS” at the closing market price of USD 23.45, as of April 04, 2025. 

Note: This report may be updated with details around fundamental and technical analysis, price/ chart in due course, as appropriate

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance level is April 04, 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Target Price refers to a price level that the stock is expected to reach as per the relative valuation method and or technical analysis taking into consideration both short-term and long-term scenarios.

Note 5: ‘Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), NASDAQ Capital Markets (NASDAQ), and or REFINITIV. Typically, all sources (NYSE, NASDAQ, or REFINITIV) may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 15-20 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.’