Natural Gas Above Key Support as Commodities Show Mixed Trend Last Week

Global Commodity Market Wrap-Up

Global commodities closed the week with a firm undertone as markets responded to U.S. NFP data and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Gold advanced 3.27%, and silver surged 12.43%, supported by safe-haven positioning amid regional uncertainty. Among base metals, copper gained 2.99%, while lead declined 0.32% and zinc slipped 1.86%, reflecting selective participation. Although economic data offered some stability, escalating Middle East developments kept sentiment cautious, leaving commodities sensitive to further macro signals and geopolitical shifts.

Energy markets displayed mixed movement last week. Natural gas declined 4.09%, pressured by robust production and softer near-term demand expectations. In contrast, crude oil advanced 0.98%, supported by relatively tighter supply cues, although ongoing Iran–U.S. discussions limited geopolitical risk premiums. Within agriculture, U.S. sugar edged up 0.14%, aided by supply-side dynamics and steady export interest. Overall, commodities reflected selective positioning, with price action remaining sensitive to macroeconomic data, geopolitical developments, and evolving global supply trends.

Global commodities ended the week on a mixed yet cautiously constructive note as markets navigated heightened geopolitical tensions and shifted macro expectations worldwide. Crude oil remained supported amid developments in the Middle East and supply-side uncertainty, while natural gas remained subdued due to steady production and moderate seasonal demand. Industrial metals reflected measured sentiment against a backdrop of uneven global growth signals. Agricultural commodities showed selective resilience. Overall, market direction remains closely tied to U.S. economic data, currency movements, and evolving geopolitical risks shaping global supply dynamics.

The upcoming Micro and Macroeconomic events that may impact on market sentiments S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, Initial Jobless Claims, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate.             

Having understood the global commodities’ performance over the past week, taking cues from major global economic events, and based on technical analysis, noted below is the recommendation with generic insights, entry price, target prices, and stop-loss Natural Gas May Future (NYMEX: NGK26) for the next 2-4-week duration:

Natural Gas May Future (NYMEX: NGK26)

Price Action and Technical Indicator Analysis: May Natural Gas futures are hovering above a key horizontal support area after forming a short-term base, indicating signs of stabilization following the recent rebound. The contract is attempting to hold above the previously tested zone, reflecting an effort to maintain near-term recovery. However, the 21-period Simple Moving Average remains positioned above the current price, acting as immediate dynamic resistance. Recent candlestick patterns suggest improvement in short-term structure, while the RSI at 41.46 points to recover but still moderate momentum. Sustained strength above support would be required to reinforce stability, while failure to clear overhead resistance may result in continued range-bound consolidation.

Now the next crucial resistance levels appear to be at USD 3.09 and USD 3.19, and prices may test these levels in the coming periods (2-4 weeks).

Source: REFINITIV; Analysis: Kalkine Group

As per the above-mentioned price action and technical indicators analysis, Natural Gas May Future (NYMEX: NGK26) is looking technically well-placed for a ‘Buy’ rating. Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual’s appetite for downside potential, risks, and any previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered in this report. Technical summary of the ‘Buy’ recommendation is as follows:

Upcoming Major Global Economic Events

Market events occur on a day-to-day basis depending on the frequency of the data and generally include an update on employment, inflation, GDP, WASDE report, consumer sentiments, etc. Noted below are the upcoming week's major global economic events that could impact commodities’ prices:

Futures Contract Specifications

Disclaimers

Related Risks: Based on the technical analysis, the risks are defined as per risk-reward ratio (~0.80:1.00), however, returns are generated within a 2-4 weeks’ time frame. This may be looked at by Individuals with sufficient risk appetite looking for returns within short investment duration. The investment recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the commodities has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact commodity prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risk, currency risks, and social and political instability risks etc.

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: Individuals can consider exiting from the commodity if the Target Price mentioned as per the Technical Analysis has been achieved and subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 3: How to Read the Charts?

The Green colour line reflects the 21-period moving average while the red line indicates the 50- period moving average. SMA helps to identify existing price trend. If the prices are trading above the 21-period and 50-period moving average, then it shows prices are currently trading in a bullish trend.

The Black colour line in the chart’s lower segment reflects the Relative Strength Index (14-Period) which indicates price momentum and signals momentum in trend. A reading of 70 or above suggests overbought status while a reading of 30 or below suggests an oversold status.

The Blue colour bars in the chart’s lower segment show the volume of the commodity. Commodity with high volumes is more liquid compared to the lesser ones. Liquidity in commodity helps in easier and faster execution of the order. 

The Orange colour lines are the trend lines drawn by connecting two or more price points and used for trend identification purposes. The trend line also acts as a line of support and resistance.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Key Risk: Technical indicators are backward-looking and may generate false or lagged signals, particularly during volatile or changing market conditions. Price trends may also be disrupted by fundamental, macroeconomic, or company-specific developments not captured in charts.

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or Selling interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or Selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.

Risk Reward Ratio: The risk reward ratio is the difference between an entry point to a stop loss and profit level. This report is based on ~80% Stop Loss of the Target 1 from the entry point.

The reference date for all price data, volumes, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 02^nd  March 2026. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note: Trading decisions require a thorough analysis by individuals. Technical reports, in general, chart out metrics that may be assessed by individuals before any commodity evaluation. The above are illustrative analytical factors used for evaluating the commodity; other parameters can be looked at along with additional risks per side.