Global Commodity Market Wrap-Up

Last week, commodity prices continued its bear run due to rising dollar index. Besides, COVID cases in China also impacted the commodity prices and demand in short run. Meanwhile, Gold lost its rally recently as the prices declined to $1870 after touching all-time levels of $2065 per troy ounce mainly due to strong dollar index. Notably, Gold and Silver prices settled at a 1.15% and 5.02% weekly losses respectively. Base metal also faced demand issues from its main buyer China which is suffering from new COVID cases. Copper and Lead prices witnessed a weekly decline of 3.27% and 5.56% respectively while Zinc prices also witnessed sharp weekly decline of 7.38%.

On the Energy front, Crude oil prices have traded in a broad trading range between $94 to $108 per barrel. Notably, Crude oil prices settled at a weekly gain of 2.57%. Also, Natural gas prices also trading in a bullish zone and settled at a weekly gain of 8.72%. Agricultural commodity prices traded in a mixed tone as Soybean and Sugar prices witnessed 0.45% and 0.21% weekly gains respectively while Corn prices improved by 3.18%.

In the recent week, primarily all the commodity prices are trading in a negative zone. Traders are now having a close eye on upcoming FOMC statement as well as OPEC-JMMC Meetings  which might decide the future price direction of commodities. Precious metal prices are continuously getting selling pressure from higher levels in the current week amid rising dollar index. Base metals are also getting selling pressure due to worldwide economic slowdown and the prices are also breaking its crucial support levels technically. On the energy front, Crude oil and Natural gas prices are trading in a range with positive bias. Agricultural commodity basket is trading with weak tone.

The upcoming macro events that may impact the market sentiments include an update on US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, FOMC Statement, Unemployment Claims, and US Unemployment Rate data released monthly.

Having understood the global commodities performance over the past one week, taking cues from major global economic events, and based on our technical analysis, noted below are our recommendations with the generic insights, entry price, target prices, and stop-loss for Copper June Futures (LME: CMCUM22) and Lumber July Futures (CME: LBN2) for the next 1-2 weeks:     

LME Copper June Futures Contract (LME: CMCUM22)

Price Action and Technical Indicator Analysis:

On the weekly chart, Copper prices broke the upward sloping trend line support and the prices are sustaining below the same from past one week. Prices are also trading below its 21-period and 50-period SMA that is supporting our bearish stance. Further, RSI (14-period) is trading at ~43.06 level, which indicates weak price momentum. Now the next crucial support level appears to be at USD 8786.00 and the prices may test that level in the coming sessions (1-2 weeks).         

As per the above-mentioned price action and technical indicators analysis, we can conclude that LME Copper June Futures (CMCUM22) is looking technically well-placed for a ‘Sell’ rating. Investment decisions should be made depending on an investors’ appetite for upside potential, risks, and any previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered. The technical summary of our ‘Sell’ recommendations is as follows:

CME Lumber July Futures Contract (CME: LBN2)

Price Action and Technical Indicator Analysis:

On the weekly chart, CME Lumber prices recently broke the upward sloping trend line by downside and the prices are sustaining below the same from past two weeks. Further, RSI (14-period) is trading at ~48.97 level, which indicates weak price momentum. Prices are also trading below its trend following indicators 21-period that also support our bearish stance. Now the next crucial support levels appear to be at USD 823.18 and USD 681.00 and the prices may test these levels in the coming sessions (1-2 weeks).                            

As per the above-mentioned price action and technical indicators analysis, we can conclude that CME Lumber July Futures (LBN2) is looking technically well-placed for a ‘Sell’ rating. Investment decisions should be made depending on an investors’ appetite for upside potential, risks, and any previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered. The technical summary of our ‘Sell’ recommendations is as follows:

Upcoming Major Global Economic Events

Market events occur on a day-to-day basis depending on the frequency of the data and generally include an update on employment, inflation, GDP, WASDE report, consumer sentiments, etc. Noted below are the upcoming week's major global economic events that could impact the commodities prices:

Futures Contract Specifications 

Disclaimers 

Investment Related Risks: Based on the technical analysis, the risks are defined as per risk-reward ratio (~0.80:1.00), however, returns are generated within 1-2 weeks’ time frame. This may be looked at by Investors with sufficient risk appetite looking for returns within short investment duration. Investment recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and fundamental performance of the commodities has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the commodity prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risk, currency risks, and social and political instability risks etc.

Entry Price: For the given recommendation(s), the Entry Price is assumed to be at or above/ at or below a certain level. However, a slight deviation in the 'Entry Price' can be considered depending upon the upside/downside potential expected and taking into consideration the Target levels indicated. For example: - An Investor can consider entering the commodity at or above/ at or below a certain range (1%-1.5%) from the Entry Levels recommended depending upon the potential upside/downside expected. Therefore, there can be a slight deviation between the ‘Entry Price’ and the ‘Current Market Price (CMP)’. The ‘Entry Price’ indicated above may or may not be same as the ‘CMP’ shown in the price chart.

Note 1: Investors can consider exiting from the commodity if the Target Price mentioned as per the Technical Analysis has been achieved and subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 2: How to Read the Charts?

The Green colour line reflects the 21-period moving average while the red line indicates the 50- period moving average. SMA helps to identify existing price trend. If the prices are trading above the 21-period and 50-period moving average, then it shows prices are currently trading in a bullish trend.

The Black colour line in the chart’s lower segment reflects the Relative Strength Index (14-Period) which indicates price momentum and signals momentum in trend. A reading of 70 or above suggests overbought status while a reading of 30 or below suggests an oversold status.

The Blue colour bars in the chart’s lower segment show the volume of the commodity. Commodity with high volumes is more liquid compared to the lesser ones. Liquidity in commodity helps in easier and faster execution of the order. 

The Orange colour lines are the trend lines drawn by connecting two or more price points and used for trend identification purposes. The trend line also acts as a line of support and resistance.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level where-in the commodity prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level where-in the commodity prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the commodity prices.

Risk Reward Ratio: The risk reward ratio is the difference between an entry point to a stop loss and profit level. We suggest ~80% Stop Loss of the Target 1 from the entry point.

The reference date for all price data, volumes, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is May 04, 2022 (Chicago, IL, USA 04.41 AM (GMT -5). The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV. 

Note: Trading decisions require a thorough analysis by investors. Technical reports in general chart out metrics that may be assessed by investors before any commodity evaluation. The above are illustrative analytical factors used for evaluating the commodity; other parameters can be looked at along with additional risks per se.