Global Commodity Market Wrap-Up

Last week, commodity prices showcased a sharp upside rally amid geopolitical tension due to the Russia-Ukraine war. Precious metals have continued their rally as gold prices settled at a 4.17% weekly gain while silver prices settled at a weekly gain of 7.44%. Base metals also gained from the current war scenario as most of the metals surged by 5-10% on an average last week. Notably, there is a supply crunch situation of metals occurred in the global markets as a considerable supply of most of the metals comes from Russia.  Also, Lead and Copper prices witnessed a weekly surge of 3.53% and 7.91% respectively while Zinc also surged sharply with a weekly gain of 11.99%.

On the Energy front, Crude oil prices also reacted sharply over the Russia-Ukraine event and settled at a weekly gain of 26.30%. Natural gas prices are also reacted similarly and settled at a weekly gain of 12.12%. Agricultural commodity prices also surged sharply triggered mainly by the sharp rise in Wheat prices as Russia and Ukraine are the major exporters of Wheat in the world markets.

In the recent week, the commodity prices are witnessing positive movement considering no ceasefire news coming from either side. Precious metals are trading in a positive tone and the yellow metal is trading near its all-time high levels. On the energy front, Natural gas prices are witnessing correction from the higher levels while Agricultural commodities are showcasing positive price momentum.

The upcoming macro events that may impact the market sentiments include an update on US JOLTS Job Opening, Crude Oil Inventories, Unemployment Claims data, and Produce Price Index data released monthly.

Having understood the global commodities performance over the past one week, taking cues from major global economic events, and based on our technical analysis, noted below are our recommendations with the generic insights, entry price, target prices, and stop-loss for Coffee C May Futures (ICE: KCK2) and Lumber May Futures (CME: LBK2 for the next 1-2 weeks:         

ICE Coffee C May Futures Contract (ICE: KCK2)

Price Action and Technical Indicator Analysis:

On the weekly chart, ICE Coffee C prices are trading in a primary bullish trend and currently consolidating. Prices recently took the support of the upward sloping trend line and are giving an upside reversal indication.Prices are trading above 21-period SMA which is supportive of the price action. Further, RSI (14-period) is trading at ~55.83 level, which indicates positive price momentum. Now the next crucial resistance levels appear to be at USc 251.35 and USc 271.53 and the prices may test these levels in the coming sessions (1-2 weeks).                      

As per the above-mentioned price action and technical indicators analysis, we can conclude that ICE Coffee C May Futures (KCK2) is looking technically well-placed for a ‘Buy’ rating. Investment decisions should be made depending on an investors’ appetite for upside potential, risks, and any previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered. The technical summary of our ‘Buy’ recommendations is as follows:

CME Lumber May Futures (CME: LBK2)

Price Action and Technical Indicator Analysis:

On the weekly chart, Lumber prices have shown a significant rally in the past couple of weeks. However, prices are now getting resistance of upward sloping trend line and started falling from the higher levels that indicate profit booking might occur at resistance levels. However, the prices are trading above the trend-following indicators 21-period and 50-period SMA, acting as an immediate support level. RSI (14-period) came down from overbought region at ~64.24 level, indicating profit booking from resistance levels. There is a negative RSI divergence with prices clearly visible on charts that further support our bearish stance. Now the next crucial support level appears to be at USD 1123.30, and prices may test that level in the coming sessions (1-2 weeks).

As per the above-mentioned price action and technical indicators analysis, we can conclude that CME Lumber May Futures (LBK2) is looking technically well-placed for a ‘Sell’ rating. Investment decisions should be made depending on an investors’ appetite for upside potential, risks, and any previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered. The summary of our ‘Sell’ recommendation is as follows:

Upcoming Major Global Economic Events

Market events occur on a day-to-day basis depending on the frequency of the data and generally include an update on employment, inflation, GDP, WASDE report, consumer sentiments, etc. Noted below are the upcoming week's major global economic events that could impact the commodities prices:

Futures Contract Specifications 

Disclaimers 

Investment Related Risks: Based on the technical analysis, the risks are defined as per risk-reward ratio (~0.80:1.00), however, returns are generated within 1-2 weeks’ time frame. This may be looked at by Investors with sufficient risk appetite looking for returns within short investment duration. Investment recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and fundamental performance of the commodities has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the commodity prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risk, currency risks, and social and political instability risks etc.

Entry Price: For the given recommendation(s), the Entry Price is assumed to be at or above/ at or below a certain level. However, a slight deviation in the 'Entry Price' can be considered depending upon the upside/downside potential expected and taking into consideration the Target levels indicated. For example: - An Investor can consider entering the commodity at or above/ at or below a certain range (1%-1.5%) from the Entry Levels recommended depending upon the potential upside/downside expected. Therefore, there can be a slight deviation between the ‘Entry Price’ and the ‘Current Market Price (CMP)’. The ‘Entry Price’ indicated above may or may not be same as the ‘CMP’ shown in the price chart.

Note 1: Investors can consider exiting from the commodity if the Target Price mentioned as per the Technical Analysis has been achieved and subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 2: How to Read the Charts?

The Green colour line reflects the 21-period moving average while the red line indicates the 50- period moving average. SMA helps to identify existing price trend. If the prices are trading above the 21-period and 50-period moving average, then it shows prices are currently trading in a bullish trend.

The Black colour line in the chart’s lower segment reflects the Relative Strength Index (14-Period) which indicates price momentum and signals momentum in trend. A reading of 70 or above suggests overbought status while a reading of 30 or below suggests an oversold status.

The Blue colour bars in the chart’s lower segment show the volume of the commodity. Commodity with high volumes is more liquid compared to the lesser ones. Liquidity in commodity helps in easier and faster execution of the order. 

The Orange colour lines are the trend lines drawn by connecting two or more price points and used for trend identification purposes. The trend line also acts as a line of support and resistance.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level where-in the commodity prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level where-in the commodity prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the commodity prices.

Risk Reward Ratio: The risk reward ratio is the difference between an entry point to a stop loss and profit level. We suggest ~80% Stop Loss of the Target 1 from the entry point.

The reference date for all price data, volumes, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is March 09, 2022 (Chicago, IL, USA 02.42 AM (GMT -6). The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV. 

Note: Trading decisions require a thorough analysis by investors. Technical reports in general chart out metrics that may be assessed by investors before any commodity evaluation. The above are illustrative analytical factors used for evaluating the commodity; other parameters can be looked at along with additional risks per se.