Commodities Show Bearish Performance Last Week as U.S. Sugar Rise Above50-Day SMA

Global Commodity Market Wrap-Up

Global commodity markets ended the week on a bearish note, as investors weighed ongoing Middle East tensions and the U.S. Fed’s decision to hold rates, with elevated energy prices adding inflation concerns. Precious metals saw sharp declines, with gold falling 9.60% and silver dropping 14.36%, reflecting pressure from a shifting rate outlook. In base metals, trends remained mixed, as copper declined by 6.67%, zinc slipped by 6.69%, and lead edged lower by 0.57%, pointing to cautious industrial demand. The overall sentiment remained weak, driven by macroeconomic uncertainty and concerns about global growth momentum.

Natural gas declined 1.95% last week as ample supply conditions and easing demand expectations led to a cooling trend after recent volatility, with disruptions in Qatar LPG flows adding to uncertainty. In contrast, crude oil gained 1.44%, supported by ongoing Middle East tensions and concerns over global supply stability. In the agricultural segment, U.S. sugar surged 9.26%, reflecting strength within a relatively steady demand environment. Overall, commodity markets remained cautious, as investors tracked geopolitical risks, supply dynamics, and macroeconomic signals shaping near-term price direction.

Global commodity markets ended the week on a cautious-to-bearish note, as investors assessed the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook alongside ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Precious metals remained under pressure, reflecting shifting interest rate expectations and subdued positioning. Industrial metals showed mixed movement, indicating moderate global demand signals. In energy, crude oil and natural gas remained volatile, driven by supply uncertainties and geopolitical risks. Meanwhile, agricultural commodities saw selective strength, with sugar posting gains. Overall sentiment stayed data-driven and cautious, as markets tracked macro trends, policy cues, and global growth conditions.

The upcoming Micro and Macroeconomic events that may impact on market sentiments include Construction Spending, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Crude Oil Inventories, Initial Jobless Claims and U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count.

Having understood the global commodities’ performance over the past week, taking cues from major global economic events, and based on technical analysis, noted below is the recommendation with generic insights, entry price, target prices, and stop-loss US Sugar May Future (ICE: SBK6) for the next 2-4-week duration:

 US Sugar May Future (ICE: SBK6)

Price Action and Technical Indicator Analysis: ICE Sugar May futures are witnessing a gradual recovery, with prices moving above the 21-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating an improvement in the near-term structure. The recent move above the prior consolidation range suggests a shift toward a slightly positive bias. Momentum indicators have strengthened, with the RSI near 75.41, entering higher zones, which may lead to some consolidation. Volume has also picked up during the recent rise, reflecting increased market participation. Sustaining above the moving averages may support stability, while any pullback could see support emerging near these levels.

Now the next crucial support levels appear to be at USc 16.50 and USc 17.00, and prices may test these levels in the coming periods (2-4 weeks).

Source: REFINITIV; Analysis: Kalkine Group

As per the above-mentioned price action and technical indicators analysis, US Sugar May Future (ICE: SBK6) is looking technically well-placed for a ‘Buy’ rating. Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual’s appetite for downside potential, risks, and any previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered in this report. Technical summary of the ‘Buy’ recommendation is as follows:

Upcoming Major Global Economic Events

Market events occur on a day-to-day basis depending on the frequency of the data and generally include an update on employment, inflation, GDP, WASDE report, consumer sentiments, etc. Noted below are the upcoming week's major global economic events that could impact commodities’ prices:

Futures Contract Specifications

Disclaimers 

Related Risks: Based on the technical analysis, the risks are defined as per risk-reward ratio (~0.80:1.00), however, returns are generated within a 2-4 weeks’ time frame. This may be looked at by Individuals with sufficient risk appetite looking for returns within short investment duration. The investment recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the commodities has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact commodity prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risk, currency risks, and social and political instability risks etc.

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: Individuals can consider exiting from the commodity if the Target Price mentioned as per the Technical Analysis has been achieved and subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 3: How to Read the Charts?

The Green colour line reflects the 21-period moving average while the red line indicates the 50- period moving average. SMA helps to identify existing price trend. If the prices are trading above the 21-period and 50-period moving average, then it shows prices are currently trading in a bullish trend.

The Black colour line in the chart’s lower segment reflects the Relative Strength Index (14-Period) which indicates price momentum and signals momentum in trend. A reading of 70 or above suggests overbought status while a reading of 30 or below suggests an oversold status.

The Blue colour bars in the chart’s lower segment show the volume of the commodity. Commodity with high volumes is more liquid compared to the lesser ones. Liquidity in commodity helps in easier and faster execution of the order. 

The Orange colour lines are the trend lines drawn by connecting two or more price points and used for trend identification purposes. The trend line also acts as a line of support and resistance.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Key Risk: Technical indicators are backward-looking and may generate false or lagged signals, particularly during volatile or changing market conditions. Price trends may also be disrupted by fundamental, macroeconomic, or company-specific developments not captured in charts. 

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or Selling interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock. 

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or Selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock. 

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices. 

Risk Reward Ratio: The risk reward ratio is the difference between an entry point to a stop loss and profit level. This report is based on ~80% Stop Loss of the Target 1 from the entry point.

The reference date for all price data, volumes, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 20^th March 2026. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV. 

Note: Trading decisions require a thorough analysis by individuals. Technical reports, in general, chart out metrics that may be assessed by individuals before any commodity evaluation. The above are illustrative analytical factors used for evaluating the commodity; other parameters can be looked at along with additional risks per side.