Key Highlights

  • On Sep 9, 2026, the EU General Court (Case T-1139/23) upheld the Commission's 2023 block of Booking's roughly 1.63 billion euro eTraveli deal; shares fell about 3.8% that day.
  • The stock closed at $164.22 on Sep 22, down about 22% in a month, after a selloff in travel and marketplace stocks tied to AI-agent concerns.
  • Q2 Revenue rose 8% to $7.35 billion with adjusted EPS of $2.54, but Q3 guidance calls for only 4% to 6% revenue growth.
  • Shares trade well below the average one-year analyst price target of about $239, with Citi and Rosenblatt both rating the stock a Buy.

Booking Holdings (NASDAQ:BKNG) is under pressure because a long-running regulatory defeat has been confirmed at the same time as investors grow more anxious about how artificial intelligence could reshape online travel. On September 9, 2026, the EU General Court upheld the European Commission's 2023 decision to block Booking's planned Acquisition of Swedish flight booking specialist eTraveli, a deal valued at about 1.63 billion euros. Booking shares closed that day at $173.43, down about 3.8% from the prior close.

The ruling did not change Booking's current operations, since the eTraveli deal never closed. It does, however, give legal backing to the Commission's view that Booking holds a dominant position in European hotel online travel agency (OTA) services and that adding a flight Business could entrench it. That makes future expansion through acquisitions in Europe harder.

The stock's slide has also had other drivers. Shares had already dropped about 6.7% on September 8, the day before the judgment, for reasons that were not clearly identified. On September 22, Booking fell another 2.55% to $164.22 as online travel, insurance and marketplace stocks sold off on concerns that personal AI agents, including Meta Platforms' (NASDAQ:META) new Muse assistant, could erode customer habits that platforms rely on. The shares are down about 22% over the past month and 23% year to date.

What the General Court Actually Decided

The judgment in Booking Holdings v European Commission (Case T-1139/23) confirmed the Commission's September 2023 prohibition, which legal analysts described in a September 17 analysis as the first Merger blocked on a pure "ecosystem" theory of harm. Booking agreed to buy eTraveli in November 2021, and the deal was referred to the Commission at the parties' request.

The Commission argued that owning a leading flight OTA would let Booking reach travelers earlier in their trip planning and cross-sell hotel rooms, strengthening its hotel OTA position. Booking offered remedies including a choice screen at flight checkout and the display of rival OTAs' hotel offers, which the Commission rejected as insufficient and hard to monitor.

The court did not endorse every step of the Commission's reasoning. It found the analysis "vitiated by a number of errors," noting the post-merger gain in Booking's hotel OTA share could be under 1% and that the Commission had not shown the deal would let Booking raise hotel commissions. The court nonetheless upheld the decision, pointing to the wide gap between Booking and its rivals and to strong network effects. It also rejected Booking's efficiency arguments. The judgment can still be appealed to the EU Court of Justice. The UK Competition and Markets Authority had cleared the same deal at Phase 1.

Second-Quarter Results Were Solid

The regulatory setback comes after a quarter that beat expectations. For the three months to June 30, reported on August 4, Booking's revenue rose 8% to $7.35 billion, or about 7% in constant currency. Adjusted EPS rose 15% to $2.54. Room nights grew 5% to 325 million and gross bookings rose 9% to $51.0 billion. Adjusted EBITDA reached about $2.6 billion, up 9%.

Merchant revenue climbed 15% to $5.13 billion, helped by higher payments revenue, while agency revenue fell 6.9% to $1.90 billion. Advertising and other revenue rose 8.4% to $322 million. The company said revenue trailed gross bookings mainly because of elevated cancellations in March tied to the Middle East conflict. The shares rose about 5.8% in after-hours trading on the day of the report.

Guidance Points to Slower Growth

For the third quarter, Booking guided for room night growth of 3% to 5% and for gross bookings, revenue and adjusted EBITDA each to rise 4% to 6%. For the full year, it expects gross bookings, revenue and adjusted EBITDA to grow at a high-single-digit rate on a reported basis and adjusted EPS to rise by a low- to mid-teens percentage. Management said the outlook assumes continued indirect effects from the Middle East conflict, including higher airfares, reduced capacity on some routes and softer long-haul demand.

Booking also raised its expected annual run-rate savings from its transformation program to about $650 million, from $550 million, with the extra savings mostly in 2027. Booking had already trimmed its full-year revenue outlook in April, citing the conflict.

Competitive and Regulatory Context

Booking, which owns Booking.com, Priceline, Agoda, Kayak and OpenTable, competes with Expedia (NASDAQ:EXPE), Airbnb (NASDAQ:ABNB) and Trip.com (NASDAQ:TCOM), as well as with Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and hotel chains' own direct channels. Its strategy centers on the "Connected Trip," which bundles flights, stays and other services. Connected Trip transactions grew at a low double-digit rate in the second quarter, and CEO Glenn Fogel has described the aim as making travel "easier while creating greater value for travelers and partners."

The eTraveli ruling is a reminder that growing that ecosystem through acquisitions in Europe faces a high bar. Booking.com has also been designated a gatekeeper under the EU's Digital Markets Act, which already limits certain practices in the region.

Risks Investors Are Weighing

  • AI disintermediation: Autonomous AI agents that research and book travel could weaken the traffic and repeat-booking habits that underpin OTA economics, although Booking is also building AI features into its own apps.
  • Geopolitics and demand: The Middle East conflict has already reduced room night growth and long-haul travel, and further disruption could weigh on guidance.
  • Regulation: The ruling strengthens the Commission's hand on ecosystem-based merger reviews, and the Digital Markets Act adds compliance constraints.
  • Slowing growth: Third-quarter guidance points to a clear deceleration from the first half.

On the other side, Booking continues to generate substantial cash, has expanded its cost savings target and pays a quarterly Dividend of $0.42 per share, payable September 30. Citi (NYSE:C) reiterated a Buy rating with a $236 target and Rosenblatt initiated coverage at Buy with a $245 target. The average one-year analyst price target is about $239.

Booking's Next Report and the Appeal Question

Booking's third-quarter results are the next major catalyst, expected Oct. 27, 2026. Investors will look at whether room nights land within the 3% to 5% range and whether management keeps its full-year outlook. Other items to watch include any decision by Booking to appeal to the EU Court of Justice, further signs of AI agents being used for travel booking, and developments in the Middle East that could affect long-haul Demand heading into the winter season.